PwC sees stronger holiday gift spending, gift cards lead early shopping
Gift spending is running hotter than PwC expected, but shoppers are playing it safe: gift cards now lead at 50%, and 64% of budgets were still unspent in late October.
Holiday shoppers are spending more confidently than PwC expected, but they are not exactly splurging. The clearest signal is the gift card boom: 50% of consumers put gift cards at the top of their list, even as 64% of holiday budgets were still unspent at the end of October and 41% said most of their shopping would happen between Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
That is a sharp turn from PwC’s September Holiday Outlook, which had pointed to a leaner season. In that earlier survey of 4,000 U.S. consumers, taken from June 26 to July 9, shoppers expected total holiday spending to fall 5% year over year and gift spending to drop 11%. The average planned holiday spend came in at $1,552 per person, with Gen Z projecting the steepest cut, down 23%.
The mood has improved since then, but not evenly. PwC’s later holiday update suggests a longer, more promotional season, with 29% of respondents planning to spend half their budget before Thanksgiving. The rest are waiting. That matters for retailers, because it pushes demand beyond the traditional holiday rush and makes January a real second act, when gift cards are redeemed and another wave of spending can land.
The generational split is doing most of the telling. PwC’s earlier outlook showed boomers as the only group expected to raise holiday budgets, with average spending up 5%. Gen Z, meanwhile, is still the most cautious cohort, and retail watchers have tied that pullback to higher living costs, tariffs, debt stress and a tougher job market for younger adults. Millennials sit in the middle: Retail Dive noted that their gifting budgets were trimmed to $921, yet they still outspend baby boomers, Gen X and Gen Z. That is the new math of smart gifting, where value, flexibility and timing matter more than volume.
PwC’s own read is that the season has become more improvisational and less predictable, especially for younger shoppers. That shows up in the way people are buying, not just what they say they plan to spend. Gift cards are the safest choice, early shopping is spreading out demand, and the biggest retailers will need to keep promotions, inventory and digital channels alive long after Thanksgiving weekend. For holiday gifting, restraint is no longer a sign of weakness. It is the strategy.
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