Arabica coffee hits two-year low as Brazil harvest outlook improves
Arabica fell to a two-year low as Brazil’s crop outlook brightened, but café menus and retail bean prices may lag the futures slide.
Arabica coffee slid to a two-year low as Brazil’s crop outlook improved. The drop has eased some of the pressure that sent coffee prices sharply higher in earlier weather scares, but it does not automatically translate into cheaper espresso drinks or supermarket bags in the next few weeks.
Brazil matters because it is the world’s largest coffee producer, and the latest supply numbers point to more beans coming. Conab raised Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop estimate to 66.7 million bags and said arabica output should reach 45.77 million bags. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected a record 71.9 million bags for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production. Those forecasts helped push the market lower as traders priced in a heavier harvest from the main origin that sets the tone for arabica worldwide.
On June 9, arabica had already fallen to a 19-month nearest-futures low, showing the selloff was building well before the newest chart. Arabica paused its rally as traders weighed the chance of being well supplied later in the year against near-term tightness in New York.
Low exchange inventories, weather risk and the timing of Brazil’s harvest can keep nearby supply tight even when the longer-range crop outlook improves. Carlos Santana, director at EISA, expects Brazil to export a record volume of coffee in the crop year starting in July.
In 2025, frost risk and low stockpiles drove prices higher, while Volcafe cut its outlook for Brazil’s arabica crop late in 2024 after a drought-driven crop tour.
This article was produced by Prism’s automated news system from verified source data, official records, and press releases, then run through automated quality and moderation checks before publishing. The system is built and supervised by the people who set the standards it runs under. Read our full AI policy.
Know something we missed? Have a correction or additional information?
Submit a Tip
