Brazil set for record coffee exports as new crop year begins
Brazil is heading into July with record coffee exports in sight, but El Niño could still rattle the flowering that shapes the next crop.
Brazil is heading into its new crop year with a rare split-screen story: record coffee exports are within reach, even as El Niño keeps the next harvest under a weather cloud. Carlos Santana, a director at EISA, the Brazilian arm of global soft commodities trader ECOM, said the country’s likely all-time-high production should translate into record shipment volumes, a development that could reshape supply expectations from roasters to importers.
Santana estimated green coffee exports at around 50 million 60-kilo bags in the new season, with larger shipments likely to start showing up in July or August as farmers move coffee quickly in an inverted market, where spot prices sit above future prices. EISA has already put Brazil’s 2026/27 production at 75.8 million bags, a scale that would keep the country at the center of the trade. Cecafé, the Brazilian coffee exporters group, said Brazil closed 2024 with 50.443 million bags shipped to 116 countries, while export revenue reached a record US$15.6 billion in 2025 even after volume fell more than 20%.
The weather, though, still matters. Santana said warmer El Niño conditions could reduce frost risk in Brazil, but excessive heat could also hurt flowering in September or October. That is the real tension behind the bullish export outlook: a stronger Brazilian crop could help rebuild stocks in consuming countries, but the market is not escaping volatility just yet. The International Coffee Organization said the ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 296.89 US cents per pound in January 2026, and world coffee exports rose 3.3% in the first six months of coffee year 2025/26.
Even the latest monthly trade figures pointed to a market that is healing unevenly. Cecafé said Brazil exported 3.1 million bags in April 2026, up 0.6% from a year earlier, while revenue fell 17.7% to US$1.109 billion. Volume held up, but the value shift showed how much pricing and mix were still moving underneath the surface.
That is what makes Brazil’s record-setting outlook so important for coffee. More beans out of Santos and the rest of the export chain could steady roasters and calm some of the panic that has hung over recent pricing, but the market is still one hot spell away from renewed strain. For now, Brazil is offering relief and fragility in the same shipment.
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