Coffee futures ease as traders watch El Niño and Brazil rain

Coffee prices eased after a run higher, but the trade is not relaxing. Arabica futures fell 1.6 percent to $2.6735 a pound after touching their highest level since mid-May, while robusta rose 0.4 percent to $3,636 a metric ton after briefly reaching its highest level since early March. The move left traders staring at the same question from two angles: how much damage El Niño and Brazil’s rain can do to supply, and how quickly the market can reverse if the weather shifts again.

The weather threat does not hit both beans the same way. For robusta, El Niño is often the sharper risk because hotter, drier conditions can hit Vietnam and Indonesia, two countries that account for a large share of global robusta output. For arabica, the concern starts in Brazil, where excess rainfall can slow harvest progress and, if it turns severe enough, start to pressure quality as well as timing.

That is why Brazil’s forecast mattered so much to traders even as prices pulled back. Intermittent heavy rain was expected to continue there for the next week to 10 days, keeping the market nervous about the pace of harvesting and the condition of the crop. The latest price action suggested that coffee is still trading like a weather market, with every fresh rain map or climate update capable of adding or subtracting momentum in a matter of hours.

The broader climate backdrop has only sharpened that sensitivity. The World Meteorological Organization said on June 2 that El Niño conditions had an 80 percent chance of emerging between June and August 2026, with a near or above 90 percent chance of persisting through at least November. Celeste Saulo, the agency’s secretary-general, warned that El Niño can influence global temperature and rainfall patterns and raise the risk of extreme weather. The United Nations has urged countries to strengthen early warning systems.

At the same time, supply forecasts are keeping a lid on panic. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at a record 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, up about 14 percent from 2025/26, with 47.5 million bags of arabica and 24.4 million bags of robusta. But traders are still weighing that bigger-season outlook against near-term rain delays and the chance that El Niño could stress Asian robusta supplies later in the year.

That is the tension running through the market now: Brazil rain is clouding the harvest, El Niño is building in the background, and coffee futures are easing only because the next weather headline has not hit yet.