Uganda coffee output to rise modestly as value-added push grows
Uganda’s coffee crop is set to inch up to 7.16 million bags, but the bigger shift is toward roasted and soluble coffee at home.
Uganda’s coffee production is forecast to edge up to 7.16 million 60-kilogram bags in market year 2026/27, a gain of 0.9% that keeps the country on a slow climb rather than a breakout run. Exports are projected to rise 1.9% to 6.83 million bags, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 335,000 bags, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
That steady growth matters because Uganda is not just chasing more volume. High prices have encouraged more planted area and more robusta production, but the policy signal now points toward a stronger value chain at home, with more roasted and soluble coffee leaving the country instead of only green beans. Uganda’s Coffee Sub-Sector Strategy 2020/21-2024/25 set that direction clearly, targeting 20 million 60-kg bags of coffee by 2025 and US$1.5 billion in export revenue while also prioritizing processing, value addition, domestic consumption, and stronger legal and institutional frameworks.
The export numbers show how quickly the sector has already moved. Coffee shipments for the 12 months ending June 2025 totaled 7.77 million bags worth US$2.22 billion, up from 6.13 million bags worth US$1.14 billion in the previous year. By the 12 months ending October 2025, exports had climbed to 8.4 million bags worth US$2.4 billion, and the Ministry of Agriculture said Uganda had overtaken Ethiopia in May 2025 to become Africa’s leading coffee exporter. In that month, Uganda shipped 47,606.7 tonnes of coffee, while October exports reached 685,720 bags worth US$185.56 million.
For roasters and traders, that mix of modest production growth and a louder value-addition push changes the kind of Uganda coffee that reaches the market. The country remains one of Africa’s major robusta origins, but the story is shifting from raw bean volume alone to a broader fight for market position, local processing capacity and more of the margin that comes after export. The crop is still growing, but the sharper move is in how Uganda wants the bean to be sold.
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