Vietnam coffee output forecast rises, but aging trees cloud outlook

Vietnam’s coffee supply picture got a bullish upgrade, but the price relief roasters are hoping for still looks fragile. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Ho Chi Minh City post lifted its MY 2025/26 production estimate to 31.7 million bags, including 30.5 million bags of robusta, while warning that aging trees and volatile weather could blunt the benefit if the next dry spell bites the crop.

The new forecast marks a 9.3 percent jump from last season’s 29 million bags and points to a larger harvest area as well. USDA tables show harvested land rising from 615,000 hectares in MY 2024/25 to 630,200 hectares in MY 2025/26 and 644,000 hectares in MY 2026/27. The report also put Vietnam’s total coffee area at about 730,000 hectares, with yields cited at 48.3 bags per hectare. For the global market, that matters because robusta still drives instant coffee and a growing share of espresso blends, cold coffee drinks and dark-roast programs.

The near-term outlook is even firmer on paper. USDA forecast MY 2026/27 production at 32.5 million bags, with 31.4 million bags of robusta and 1.1 million bags of arabica, as replanted acreage moves into stable harvest and high prices keep farmers investing. Falling prices from the 2024 to 2025 peaks have already pushed producers, traders and exporters to release stocks, adding some flow to the market. Vietnam was also classified as a low-risk country under the EU Deforestation Regulation on May 22, a small but meaningful signal for exporters trying to protect access to Europe.

But the crop is leaning on old wood. Roughly 30 percent of Vietnam’s current coffee area is 20 years old or older and needs replanting or renewal if productivity is going to hold. World Agroforestry has said trees older than 25 years can see yields fall by as much as 50 percent, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development had already set a replanting target of 75,000 hectares of ageing trees and 32,000 hectares more through grafting by 2025.

Costs are another brake. Fertilizer and fuel are running about 30 percent higher year on year, while labor costs are up 33 percent. In Tây Nguyên, the Central Highlands belt that includes Lâm Đng, Đk Nông, Gia Lai, Kon Tum and Đk Lk, erratic rainfall has already become part of the production math. Above-average rain late in 2025 gave way to below-normal rainfall in the first quarter of 2026, and El Niño risk now threatens to cancel out the bigger crop before roasters ever see cheaper beans.