JCK Las Vegas reveals split diamond market as large stones outperform

JCK Las Vegas ended Monday with a clear message for diamond buyers: the market is no longer moving in one piece. Rapaport said 2-carat-and-larger stones sold briskly over four days on the floor in Las Vegas, while smaller bread-and-butter goods were slower and more mixed, with 1.20- to 1.99-carat stones uneven and the divide looking sharper than at last year’s fair.

The strongest demand sat where scarcity and desirability overlapped. Rapaport said larger natural stones remain hard to find, especially in 2 carats and up, and quoted Shreyans Dholakia of Shree Ramkrishna Exports saying that what had been shortage for about a year had become “real scarcity” because pipeline inventory had already been absorbed. Long fancy shapes, including ovals, marquises, emeralds, long radiants and long cushions, moved better than rounds in 2 carats and larger. Long cushions were trading at a 20% to 25% premium over square cushions, while poorly proportioned fancy shapes stayed illiquid. For rounds and long fancies alike, the sweet spot was G-J color and VS1-SI2 clarity.

That split fits the wider K-shaped recovery Rapaport sees across the trade. Wealthier shoppers are still spending, especially on pricier pieces, while lower-budget consumers are more likely to choose lab-grown stones. At the show, jewelry itself outperformed loose diamonds, and the Luxury section drew strong traffic from high-end jewelers hunting for unusual pieces for affluent clients. Signet’s fiscal first-quarter sales, up 1% year over year to $1.6 billion, added a retail datapoint that the market still has pockets of strength even as the middle softens.

The supply side remains just as important as demand. Rapaport said Angola is moving to reduce supply of small rough, while the Finsch mine is in business rescue and the Kao mine was reportedly pausing. Regional attendance also shaped the floor: Belgium was lighter because many companies chose GemGenève in May instead of the Vegas trip, and Israel’s market was slowed by a stronger shekel and concern over the Iran war. Indian exhibitors, meanwhile, reported better sales in 2-carat-and-larger goods and weaker results in smaller sizes.

That is the trade’s near-term challenge and opportunity. JCK’s own show-floor read pointed to gold-price pressure, design-led storytelling and versatility as defining themes, and Rapaport said uniqueness, authenticity and storytelling are gaining importance as couples shop together. In a market where commodity goods lag and scarce stones command attention, inventory discipline matters more than ever: buy the sizes and shapes moving now, and be wary of overcommitting to the sub-2-carat middle that is losing momentum.