Mother’s Day Jewelry Spending Leads NRF’s Record $38 Billion Forecast

Jewelry is poised to take the biggest share of Mother’s Day money this year, even as flowers remain the most popular gift. The National Retail Federation said consumers are expected to spend a record $38 billion on the holiday, with 45% planning to buy jewelry for a loved one and overall participation at 84% of U.S. adults. The average planned spend has climbed to $284.25 per person, a sign that the strongest diamond gifts will need to feel both personal and clearly worth the price.

That spending is not spread evenly across the gift table. Flowers top the list at 75% of shoppers, followed by greeting cards at 74%, special outings at 63%, gift cards at 55% and clothing or accessories at 51%. Jewelry ranks sixth by share of shoppers, yet first by dollars spent at $7.5 billion, ahead of special outings at $6.4 billion and electronics at $4.4 billion. In other words, fewer people may buy jewelry than flowers, but the money concentrates heavily in the cases, not the bouquets.

The buying pattern points to the channels most likely to capture diamond demand. Online and department stores each lead at 33%, followed by specialty stores at 29% and discount stores at 26%. For shoppers comparing natural and lab-grown diamonds, that makes clarity of labeling especially important. A piece like Fourteen August’s Irene ring, priced at $2,450, shows the category’s direction plainly: 14-karat yellow gold, 0.50 carats of lab-grown diamonds, and a price tag that lands far above the holiday average. It is giftable, but it is not casual.

Fourteen August founder Diana Bufalini launched the brand in 2023, and the company describes her work as inspired by travel and memory. A separate profile said the passing of her mother propelled the launch, which gives the Irene ring an emotional fit for Mother’s Day that feels more considered than sentimental marketing. In a season built around a high-stakes purchase, provenance and story can matter as much as sparkle.

Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist and executive director of research, said consumers are “gifting from the heart” and looking for unique gifts that create lasting memories despite economic uncertainty. Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics, said shoppers are budgeting more and planning to shop across more categories, with electronics spending expected to cross $4 billion for the first time in the survey’s history. For diamond buyers, the message is straightforward: compare the metal, the stone type and the price before the Mother’s Day rush settles into full swing.