Natural diamonds gain at higher price points as lab-grown dominates entry level

Natural diamonds are finding their strongest footing where the tickets get heavier. Edahn Golan told the trade in Antwerp that the U.S. market continued to improve in revenue even as unit sales stayed softer, with the average retail price for natural diamond jewelry reaching $2,775 in 2025, up 11% year over year, and a projected average purchase price of $3,000 in the first quarter of 2026.

The split is sharpest at the counter. Golan said lab-grown stones dominate sales below roughly $2,500, while natural diamonds are winning above that line. In his view, the $2,500 to $5,000 range is the strongest segment in the U.S. market, while purchases below $2,500 fell in both units and value. His data also showed U.S. diamond jewelry demand rising 4% in 2025 on higher average transaction value, and average consumer spending per item up 23% versus earlier years.

That premium tilt is changing the shape of demand beyond bridal. Golan said natural diamond jewelry sales were up 4% year over year and that consumers who spend more per unit also buy more diamond jewelry, a sign that the category is becoming more premiumized rather than simply shrinking. The lower-price tier, he argued, is the main ground being lost to lab-grown competition, while higher-ticket natural pieces continue to hold up on rarity and perceived emotional weight.

Bridal remains the most exposed part of the market, but even there the picture is uneven. Golan said India continued to benefit from strong bridal demand, while in the United States engagement-ring demand is being reshaped by second marriages, quiet luxury, and weaker interest among 25- to 35-year-olds. Average U.S. engagement-ring purchase prices are rising, but partly because the bottom end has already been ceded to lab-grown engagement rings.

The industry is responding with a more explicit premium argument. Signet Jewelers chief executive J.K. Symancyk said natural diamonds still have strength at the high end and that the growth opportunity sits in higher-quality natural stones, while lab-grown diamonds have likely already hit their lowest point on the cost side. Feriel Zerouki of the World Diamond Council has pointed to oversupply and crashing lab-grown prices, with wholesale values for one- and two-carat stones down as much as 96% since 2018. De Beers, meanwhile, has said natural-diamond marketing and clear differentiation from synthetics are essential to rebuild consumer confidence, especially as rough production is expected to fall from about 150 million carats in 2017 to around 100 million carats in 2025. The market no longer looks like a simple natural-versus-lab battle; it looks like a split economy, with entry-level pressure still real and higher-end natural demand still alive.