Tariff uncertainty, 1-carat softening, large-stone strength and retail resilience

US tariff changes have jolted the diamond trade, threatening India’s long-standing exemption and raising duties on polished stones from Belgium to 10%, AWDC believes, a move that has injected fresh uncertainty into February trading. Rapaport reported the market was unsettled in February and early March: "The diamond market was uncertain in February as tariffs underwent sudden changes. US prices declined; prices of diamonds located elsewhere were up in some categories and down in others." Rapaport’s site featured an image described as "An Indian flag covered by tape featuring US flags image," underscoring the diplomatic friction behind the tariff headlines.

The mid-market showed signs of strain in February, with RapNet’s March pulse noting, "1-carat diamond prices softened in February but declines were moderate overall." RapNet referenced its Diamond Index for February 2026 and reviewed February data, though the pulse did not publish specific index values in the material reviewed. The moderation in 1-carat movement contrasts with sharper regional divergence, particularly the US, where Rapaport recorded price declines.

At the other end of the market, large stones remained a pressure point for supply and pricing. De Beers raised prices on 5-carat and larger rough at its February sight, a response explicitly linked to "shortages and solid US demand for 2-carat and larger polished." That same corporate stress showed up in balance sheets: Anglo American reduced De Beers’ book value from $4.1 billion to $2.3 billion. Smaller producers felt the pinch—Rapaport ran the headline "Lack of Large Stones Dents Lucara Revenue," adding that the "Company still fighting to continue as going concern."

Despite headline volatility, the rough market displayed resilience earlier in the month. AIDI’s March 2 market brief, headlined "Diamond Market Defies Headwinds: Rough Prices Show Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty," stated, "The rough diamond market is exhibiting surprising stability, with prices holding firm despite a volatile global economic landscape." AIDI attributed that stability to "robust consumer demand in key retail sectors and constrained supply from major mining regions," and its piece carried the metadata "Reading Time: 4 mins read" and share markers "Share130Tweet81," signaling attention among trade readers.

Geopolitical risk compounded trade anxieties: Rapaport noted, "The Iran war, which affects Israel and Dubai, added to the uncertainty in early March. Dubai is an important trading center for rough and polished." That intersection of geopolitics, tariffs, and uneven regional price movement leaves the industry watching inventory flows closely as sight allocations and trading routes adjust.

In sum, the market showed a split personality in early March: moderate softness in 1-carat, robust demand and higher pricing for 2-carat and larger polished accompanied by De Beers’ 5-carat-plus rough increases, and headline tariff and geopolitical shocks that threaten supply chains. "The coming months will be crucial as the market navigates these complex dynamics and adapts to evolving consumer preferences.