Elon Poll Shows Cooper Leading Whatley in Senate Race by Wide Margin

An Elon University Poll released April 2 found former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper holding a commanding name recognition lead over Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina's U.S. Senate race, with 70% of state adults saying they have heard "a great deal" or "some" about Cooper compared to just 35% who said the same about Whatley.

The survey of 800 North Carolina adults, conducted March 13 to 20 and fielded by YouGov, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.43%. The race is to fill the seat being vacated by outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Democrat Roy Cooper, Republican Michael Whatley and Libertarian Shannon Bray are the candidates.

Whatley, who formerly served as chair of the Republican National Committee and the North Carolina Republican Party, remains largely unknown to registered voters. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (62%) said they have heard "only a little" (33%) or "nothing" (29%) about him.

Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, said the gap was predictable given Whatley's political resume. "Roy Cooper, the Democratic candidate, has a tremendous advantage in name recognition and voter familiarity over Republican candidate Michael Whatley," Husser said. "This is not surprising, as Whatley has never run for a statewide office in North Carolina before."

Cooper's head start is not a major surprise. He has been a fixture of North Carolina politics for decades, serving as a state senator and later attorney general before his two terms as governor from 2017 to 2025.

The favorability gap between the candidates mirrors the recognition gap. 48% of registered voters viewed Cooper favorably compared to 34% who viewed him unfavorably. 25% of registered voters viewed Whatley favorably and 34% unfavorably, with 41% holding a neutral opinion.

The Whatley campaign dismissed the results. Danielle Alvarez, spokesperson for the Whatley campaign, called it "another day another useless poll," adding: "Roy Cooper, a career politician who has been living off the taxpayer for 40 years, has name ID — real groundbreaking findings. But name ID isn't leadership, and it isn't results."

Beyond the horse race numbers, the Elon Poll surfaced a striking drop in voter confidence in the electoral process. Only 38% of North Carolinians said they believe this year's election will produce a fair and accurate count of the votes cast nationwide. While only 21% explicitly said the count will not be fair, a sizable 41% of voters said they are "unsure." This represents a significant decline in confidence from an Elon Poll conducted in August 2024, when 48% believed the count would be fair and accurate and 32% were unsure.

Husser noted that despite this growing uncertainty, voters showed a strong, bipartisan preference for keeping election administration in state hands rather than ceding it to the federal government.

The broader partisan landscape also shifted in the poll. Only 35% of North Carolinians said they want Republicans to keep control of Congress, down from 40% six months ago, while 40% favored Democratic control of both chambers. With Republicans currently holding a 53-47 Senate majority, Democrats need to flip four seats to retake the chamber, and they have identified North Carolina as one of their prime pickup opportunities heading into November.