Baltimore residents expect to move, but mostly stay local

Baltimore’s next wave of movers looks more local than regional. A Johns Hopkins brief found that 61 percent of Baltimore City and Baltimore County residents expected to move out of their current neighborhoods within three years, but most of those prospective movers said they planned to stay within the same jurisdiction.

That distinction matters for Baltimore City’s housing market, school planning and tax base. If households are not leaving the region, but shifting from one city neighborhood to another, the pressure falls on where affordable homes, rental units and family-sized options exist inside Baltimore rather than on a simple count of departures from the metro area.

The brief, Mobility Expectations of Baltimore Area Residents, drew on the 2024 Baltimore Area Survey, a statistically representative survey of city and county residents. Researchers fielded 163 questions to 934 Baltimore City residents and 558 Baltimore County residents between September and November 2024, asking both where people expected to live in three years and where they wanted to live in three years.

The results point to a split market. Renters and lower-income residents were more likely to expect to move, but they generally anticipated shorter-distance moves within their current jurisdiction. Homeowners and wealthier residents were more likely to expect to stay put, and when they did expect to move, they were more likely to cross jurisdictional lines. Residents who were dissatisfied with their neighborhoods were also more likely to expect to leave and to foresee longer-distance moves, including moves out of state.

That pattern is especially important in Baltimore City, where the brief says population declined every year from 2014 through 2023, while Baltimore County has declined since 2021. Yet the U.S. Census Bureau estimated Baltimore City at 568,271 residents on July 1, 2024, a small gain after years of loss, while Baltimore County stood at 852,425. The numbers suggest the city-county housing system remains large and fluid even as long-term demographic pressure continues.

The survey also found that expectations generally matched preferences, but fears of being priced out ran through the data, especially among renters and a substantial share of homeowners who wanted to stay in their current neighborhood. In Baltimore City, that suggests the challenge is not only retaining residents, but keeping enough options available so households can move without leaving the city altogether.

For city leaders and housing advocates, the takeaway is stark: Baltimore’s population story is increasingly about internal migration, with families and renters recalculating where they can afford to live while trying to remain close to the neighborhoods, institutions and routines they already know.