Buncombe County Shrank After Helene, Census Data Shows

Nearly three in ten Asheville residents were still absent from the city months after Hurricane Helene, and new U.S. Census data confirm the storm cost Buncombe County more than 0.6% of its population, erasing domestic migration gains the county had accumulated in preceding years.

The CrisisReady Hurricane Helene Situation Report, dated October 5, 2024, put Asheville's recovery at 72% of its pre-storm baseline, with between 67,000 and 69,000 residents estimated to remain within city limits. Many had been displaced to communities outside the city boundaries, the report found.

The geographic patterns of that displacement were severe and unequal. Lake Lure, Hooper's Creek, and Montreat remained more than 50% below their pre-storm population levels as of early October, with little daily movement indicating any quick rebound. Towns farther from the storm's core damage absorbed the displaced: Marion and Salem each climbed 35% above their pre-storm baselines, Morganton rose 25%, Valdese gained 17%, and Drexel added 15%, according to CrisisReady's regional tracking.

The scale of infrastructure failure helps explain why so many people left and stayed away. Over 74,000 power outages struck the region, layered on top of water system disruptions and a slow restoration of mobile networks that made basic communication difficult for weeks. Residents who depended on powered medical equipment were directed to a shelter established at 10 Genevive Cir in Asheville.

Buncombe's losses, while significant, were smaller than those of neighboring counties. Avery and Mitchell counties, both devastated by Helene, saw significantly larger population decreases. In Avery County, CrisisReady drew on Facebook user data representing more than 26% of the county's Census population to track movement and guide response decisions.

The Census figures mark a turning point for a county that had been attracting residents steadily before the storm. Whether those residents continue to stay away or return is a question Buncombe's planners, school administrators, and employers are now forced to answer.