Collin County Home Values Drop 6%, Median Price Still 39% Above State Average

The numbers hit different depending on which side of a transaction you were on. Collin County home prices were down 5.4% compared to last year as of January 2026, with a median sale price of $435,000. Sellers who bought at the county's pandemic-era peak felt the math plainly: average home prices fell 6% over the past year, meaning a $500,000 home shed roughly $30,000 in value.

Yet the county's pricing floor remains remarkably elevated by Texas standards. Collin County's median list price stood at $519,900, which is 39% above the state median, even as 55.7% of sellers cut prices. Texas's statewide median sat at $374,000 by comparison, according to Altos Research data compiled through the week ending Nov. 7, 2025. The county's list-price per square foot of $206.10 carried a 13% premium over the state's $181.80.

On the sales side, Orchard's rolling 30-day data showed the median sale price at $445,984, down 6.2% year over year, with price per square foot at $195.43, off 5.8% from the prior year. Redfin's November 2025 county snapshot put the figure slightly lower, at approximately $435,000, a sharper 8.4% annual decline. The gap between the two reflects different methodologies and time windows, but both point in the same direction.

Collin County is not one market, though. Frisco's median sale price came in around $675,000 in November 2025, down 6.2% year over year. McKinney landed at approximately $482,500, down 6.3%. Plano held up better at roughly $520,000, a 3.0% decline. Some Plano zip codes, including 75025 and 75093, were actually up year over year, while others were down.

Inventory tells part of the story. The total number of homes for sale in Collin County reached 7,271, up 14.9% from the prior year, while months of supply climbed to 7.07 from just 3.37 months a year earlier. Buyers now have more than double the relative inventory they had 12 months ago. The number of homes sold in the most recent 30-day period fell to 794, down from 1,391 the prior year, a drop of nearly 43%.

With that inventory shift came buyer leverage that was unthinkable during the 2021-2022 run-up. Orchard's data showed a median sale-to-list-price ratio of 95.71%, down half a point year over year. Only 8.31% of homes sold above list price, down 2.4 percentage points from the prior year. More than half of all active listings, 50.25% per Orchard and 55.7% per Altos Research, underwent price reductions.

Broker Roxanne Deberry described the shift as a recalibration rather than a collapse. "This is not a market collapse; it's a healthy correction," she wrote in a market analysis. "Buyers are getting negotiation power back, and price expectations are becoming realistic." She added that easing interest rates and rising inventory from motivated sellers should offer more choices without triggering a dramatic price spike.

The long-term data supports a plateau narrative rather than a freefall. The North Dallas and Plano Real Estate Blog tracked price per square foot across nearly two decades and found that from 2003 to 2014, PPSF held steady between $75 and $99. The dramatic acceleration came during what the blog called "the Velocity Zone": between 2021 and 2022, prices tore through two full PPSF brackets in just 13 months, driven by historically low interest rates. The market then entered the $200-$225 PPSF bracket in mid-2022 and held there through the end of 2025, a stabilizing run of more than three years.

With prices still down year over year and homes now sitting on the market an average of 91 days compared to 75 days the prior year, the conditions that defined the county's historic surge have clearly given way to something more deliberate. Whether that plateau holds through 2026 will depend heavily on how many of those 7,271 listed homes find buyers willing to close the gap between what sellers are asking and what the market will bear.