McKinney ISD braces for slower home-value growth, deeper budget gap

Slower growth in McKinney home values could leave McKinney ISD with less money than it needs to cover next year’s costs, deepening the district’s budget pressure even after homeowners continue paying a heavy tax bill.

Chief Financial Officer Marlene Harbeson told trustees on April 20 that preliminary numbers from the Collin Central Appraisal District pointed to a smaller rise in taxable home values than the district had hoped for. She said the district should plan on about a 4% increase in property tax values when building the next budget, but early appraisal data suggested that outlook may still be too optimistic.

That matters because McKinney ISD depends heavily on local property taxes, and even a modest slowdown in value growth can ripple through the entire budget. The district’s adopted 2025-26 tax rate is already set at $1.1043 per $100 of valuation, and the average home in the district was previously valued at $575,734. With numbers that high, a softer rate of growth can still leave the district short of what it needs to keep pace with rising costs.

The pressure comes at a time when district leaders are already balancing staffing, classroom programs, maintenance needs and future pay decisions. If property values rise more slowly than expected, McKinney ISD may have less room to maneuver when it decides how much money to set aside for salaries, campus repairs and instructional support. Those choices will also depend on how state funding and enrollment trends look when the final budget is assembled.

For families and taxpayers across McKinney, the issue reaches beyond the appraisal roll. A slower climb in home values does not erase high tax bills, but it can limit how much new money flows into the district, forcing school leaders to make harder tradeoffs in a city where housing costs, enrollment and school funding are closely linked.

The district’s challenge now is to build a budget around a more cautious assumption before the numbers are finalized. If the appraisal data holds, McKinney ISD could enter the next fiscal year with less breathing room than it expected, making the budget debate about more than dollars on a spreadsheet and putting classroom staffing and campus needs directly on the line.