Early Voting Starts Feb. 17 as Harris County GOP Primary Tightens

A University of Houston/Hobby School poll of Harris County voters fielded Feb. 3–10 found Republican U.S. Senate preferences clustered: Sen. John Cornyn at 32%, Attorney General Ken Paxton at 27% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 25%, while 14% of likely GOP primary voters remained undecided. Early voting for the Texas primary began Feb. 17, and KHOU has noted Harris County is expected to supply roughly one in 10 Republican primary votes statewide, magnifying the local margin for error.

The UH/Hobby School survey sampled 2,000 likely Democratic primary voters and 2,000 likely Republican primary voters in Harris County, with a margin of error of ±2.19% for each sample. Those sample sizes make this the most detailed county-level snapshot available: the poll’s narrow margins underscore how a relatively modest shift among the 14% undecided could swing local outcomes during early voting.

By contrast, a statewide survey conducted Jan. 20–31 with a Republican sample of 550 showed a different picture: Paxton 38%, Cornyn 31% and Hunt 17%. That statewide survey also reported a Democratic primary lineup with Rep. Jasmine Crockett at 47% and state Rep. James Talarico at 39%, and it found roughly 12% undecided in both primaries. The statewide poll further indicated Paxton led Cornyn across most demographic groups except Latino voters, where Cornyn led by seven percentage points, and projected Paxton would hold a substantial advantage in a runoff matchup.

Those divergent results reflect differing frames and timing: the Harris County UH/Hobby poll was fielded Feb. 3–10 with 2,000-per-party samples focused on county voters, while the statewide poll was conducted Jan. 20–31 with smaller statewide samples (n=550 per party). The county sample shows a tighter three-way contest locally and a larger undecided share - 14% in Harris County versus 12% statewide - leaving the race fluid as early ballots are cast.

Campaign dynamics in Houston and elsewhere have already shifted to aggressive advertising. FOX 7 Austin reported several attack ads targeting Wesley Hunt’s personal background and congressional voting record; FOX 7 said it spoke to Hunt about those ads and noted that Paxton and Cornyn have largely avoided directly engaging him. Paxton’s campaign has amplified national conservative connections: in a news release quoted by El Paso Times and other outlets, Paxton said, “Charlie Kirk is an inspiration to millions of people across the world, and I’m blessed to have known him and called him a friend,” and framed his candidacy as part of a broader fight to “save America.”

On the Democratic side, the Hart Research finding reported by the El Paso Times and Yahoo indicated Rep. Jasmine Crockett would beat Paxton in a general election matchup; that item lacks methodological detail in the available reporting. Crockett told reporters she is “up with Latino voters and young people, independents favor me by a double-digit margin, and I am the preferred candidate of working-class voters. This is who we need to rebuild our winning democratic coalition,” language cited in El Paso Times coverage, a line her campaign is using to press turnout during early voting that began Feb. 17.

With Harris County accounting for an outsized share of Republican primary ballots and UH/Hobby showing Cornyn, Paxton and Hunt separated by only seven percentage points locally, campaign resources and undecided voters in Houston-area precincts will likely determine whether the contest is decided in March or pushed into a runoff. Early voting that began Feb. 17 shifts the immediate battlefield to Harris County doors and vote centers as the March primary approaches.