Harris County early voting drops 56% ahead of runoff election

Houston’s runoff is heading into Election Day with far fewer early ballots than the March primary, a drop that could leave county politics in the hands of a much smaller slice of voters. Harris County recorded just over 145,000 early ballots for the runoff, down from more than 330,000 in March, a decline of roughly 56 percent.

That smaller turnout matters because the biggest decisions on Tuesday are not abstract. Republican voters are choosing between U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, while Democratic voters are deciding the contest in the newly redrawn 18th Congressional District between Al Green and Christian Menefee. In Harris County itself, the judge’s race also sits on the ballot, putting a major countywide office before a much thinner electorate than the one that showed up in March.

Rice University political science fellow Mark Jones said the pattern looks like “a tale of two parties.” He said Republican early voting was down about 25 percent from March, while Democratic early voting was down about 75 percent, in part because the March Democratic primary featured a high-profile U.S. Senate race that is not on this runoff ballot. Jones said the county’s turnout is being driven mostly by local races such as Congressional District 18 and the Harris County judge race, and he estimated Democrats could still finish around 150,000 to 160,000 Election Day votes if Tuesday turnout is strong.

The runoff opened for early voting on Monday, May 18, and closed Friday, May 22. Election Day is Tuesday, May 26, and the result will be shaped by whichever voters still show up after months of primaries, special elections and constant campaign advertising. Some Houston-area residents have described the pace as election fatigue, with repeated voting cycles making it easier for people to tune out even when the stakes remain high.

That is where Harris County’s low-turnout runoff becomes more than a headline about participation. A small electorate will help determine who represents Houston in Washington, but it will also shape how the county is governed, from the direction set by the county judge to the administration of local services and courts. In a runoff this thin, every ballot carries more weight.

County election officials also note that early-voting reports on Harris Votes use registered-voter totals drawn from records about 55 days before Election Day, so the numbers on turnout sheets may not match the exact number of eligible voters on Tuesday.