Harris County Judge Primary Poll: Annise Parker Leads; Republicans Mostly Undecided

Harris County voters face a compressed primary window as a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey released Feb. 17 shows starkly different dynamics on the two sides of the ballot and early voting runs through Feb. 27. The Hobby School poll, fielded Feb. 3–10 among likely primary voters, gives former Houston Mayor Annise Parker 46 percent support in the Democratic primary for county judge, compared with 25 percent for former Houston City Council member Letitia Plummer, 5 percent for Matt Salazar and 24 percent who said they were undecided.

The Hobby School numbers translate to a 21-percentage-point margin between Parker and Plummer, a gap Houston Press characterized as evidence the county judge contest “has not been about roads and bridges or minimizing a budget deficit. It’s about which Democratic candidate is the most progressive and whether a Republican can take back the seat.” Parker’s lead comes as early voting for the March 3 primaries is already underway; winners on March 3 will advance to the November general election.

The Republican primary picture is far less settled inside Harris County. Orlando Sanchez leads the GOP field with about 21 percent support and Marty Lancton polls at roughly 10 percent, but Houston Public Media reports “54% of likely Republican voters said they were not sure who they would support in the March 3 primary.” The Hobby School materials note there are six GOP candidates in the judge’s race and Houston Press observed those six “haven’t received anywhere close to the level of publicity that Parker and Plummer have.”

Fundraising and high-profile endorsements could shift that undecided pool. Houston Press reports Marty Lancton “has outraised his opponents with about $500,000 in his coffers, according to campaign finance reports filed last month.” The same report says Governor Greg Abbott endorsed Lancton as part of an effort to turn Harris County “dark red,” and Abbott “labeled Lancton a ‘decorated firefighter and proven advocate for working families.’”

The Hobby School survey released Feb. 17 also included statewide primary contests that illustrate broader partisan contours in Texas. The Hobby School material shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn 38 percent to 31 percent in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, and reports U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading state Rep. James Talarico 47 percent to 39 percent in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary with 12 percent undecided. The Hobby School writeup quoted Mark P. Jones saying, “Texas is still a red state, and although these margins are narrow, either of the Democratic candidates will have their work cut out for them in November.”

The poll excerpts made available in reporting did not include sample size, margin of error or detailed weighting and mode information; the Hobby School reported only field dates (Feb. 3–10) and that the figures reflect likely primary voters. Those methodological details will be important for campaigns and voters tracking shifts during early voting through Feb. 27 and the final stretch before the March 3 primary.