Harris County Poll Shows Crockett Narrowly Leads Talarico in Democratic Senate Primary

A Harris County-specific UN/TSU poll finds Rep. Jasmine Crockett at 45% and Rep. James Talarico at 43% in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Harris County, while the same county survey shows Republicans John Cornyn at 32%, Ken Paxton at 27% and Wesley Hunt at 25%, and former Houston mayor Annise Parker leading Republicans for Harris County Judge at 46%. With less than three weeks until early voting begins, the county picture gives Crockett a small local edge.

Statewide polling in mid-January presents a different, tighter portrait. Texas Public Opinion Research fielded a statewide likely Democratic primary sample of 1,290 from Jan. 14 to Jan. 21 and found Crockett 38%, Talarico 37% with 21% undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Luke Warford, director of TPOR, said, "Crockett and Talarico are running neck-and-neck in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate," and added, "Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base."

Earlier in January, Emerson College Polling fielded from Jan. 10 to Jan. 12 and showed Talarico leading 47% to Crockett 38% with 15% undecided. Emerson’s executive director Spencer Kimball noted, “Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” and “Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett.”

Demographic patterns vary across the polls. TPOR’s Jan. 14–21 sample shows ages 18–34 at Talarico 34%, Crockett 33% with 28% undecided; ages 35–49 at Crockett 44%, Talarico 36%; ages 50–64 at Crockett 40%, Talarico 37%; and ages 65+ at Talarico 39%, Crockett 35%. TPOR also reports female voters at 39% for Crockett (a four-point lead noted) while male voters lean to Talarico at 38% (a one-point lead among men noted).

Name recognition and a visibility gap appear central to the divergence. Talarico continued to lag behind Crockett in name recognition, with 27% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they were unfamiliar with him and another 15% saying they knew of him but had no strong opinion. Meanwhile, just 15% of voters surveyed said they had never heard of Crockett. Further, the survey found a "visibility gap," with 35% of voters saying they do not see or hear from Talarico at all, versus 24% saying the same for Crockett. More than half said they had seen or heard from Crockett often in recent weeks.

Poll timing, geography and undecided voters help explain conflicting snapshots. Emerson’s Jan. 10–12 fielding shows Talarico with a larger early-January lead and 15% undecided; TPOR’s Jan. 14–21 shows a near tie with 21% undecided and a ±3.7 margin of error, making that one-point difference statistically a tie. A Crockett campaign internal survey released shortly after Emerson reported Crockett up by 13 points, and a December Texas Southern University poll conducted just after Crockett entered the race showed Crockett up by 8 points; both internal and TSU results were reported without full methodological details.

Emerson’s poll also tested general-election matchups: Cornyn 47% to Talarico 44% with 9% undecided; Paxton 46% to Talarico 46% with 9% undecided; Hunt 47% to Talarico 44% with 9% undecided; Cornyn 48% to Crockett 43% with 9% undecided; Paxton 46% to Crockett 46% with 9% undecided; and Hunt 48% to Crockett 43% with 9% undecided. Emerson’s governor matchup showed Gov. Greg Abbott 50% to Gina Hinojosa 42% with 8% undecided.

The variety of results underscores volatility as early voting nears and undecided voters remain sizable in some samples. Those surveyed in the mid-January statewide poll expressed confidence that a Democrat could win the general election in November. Audio recording is automated for accessibility. Humans wrote and edited the story. See our AI policy, and give us feedback.