Poll shows tight three-way race in open Kauai mayor’s contest

A new poll released June 26 put Council Chair Mel Rapozo in the lead in Kauai’s open mayor’s race, but only narrowly, with Bernard Carvalho Jr. at 24% and Felicia Cowden at 22%. With 16% undecided and the rest split among lower-tier candidates, the survey points to a three-way fight for the two runoff spots heading into the Aug. 8 primary.

The race is open because Mayor Derek Kawakami is term-limited after two four-year terms. Hawaii’s Office of Elections says Kauai County mayors may serve a maximum of two consecutive full terms, and Kawakami, first elected in 2018, is instead running for Hawaii lieutenant governor after announcing that bid on March 17. The county’s general election is set for Nov. 3.

The poll, conducted by Tulchin Research for PRP, also suggests the three front-runners are the best known in the field. Carvalho had a 55% favorable rating and 38% unfavorable, Rapozo was at 49% favorable and 40% unfavorable, and Cowden stood at 45% favorable and 30% unfavorable. Those numbers matter in a county where name recognition, turnout and persuasion among undecided voters are likely to decide whether the general election becomes a head-to-head or a longer fight.

At least six candidates had filed by the May snapshot of the race: Rapozo, Carvalho, Cowden, Megeso-William Denis, Laura Andaya-Lindsey and Michaela B. Widener. Recent campaign coverage has centered on housing affordability, infrastructure, wastewater, solid-waste planning, permit reform, environmental protection, managed growth, tourism management and short-term rental enforcement. Kauai County’s median listing price hit $1.4 million in May, underscoring the scale of the housing crunch that candidates are being pressed to address.

The money race has also become part of the equation. Civil Beat reported in February that Rapozo was raising and spending more than Carvalho, while both men have drawn support from overlapping donor circles that include labor unions, tourism interests, land developers and Grove Farm executives. Cowden has tried to separate herself by emphasizing both government experience and fresh eyes, and she has called affordability the county’s biggest issue.

Kawakami’s exit sets up Kauai’s first truly open mayor’s race in eight years. In 2022, he won re-election with 73.3% of the vote over Michael Roven, a margin that now looks far removed from the more competitive contest voters will settle in August and November.