Live election coverage, SF congressional race, Prop D and governor contest

A new tax on big employers, Nancy Pelosi’s open congressional seat and a crowded governor’s race are the contests most likely to change what San Franciscans feel after polls close Tuesday.

Voters across California can still register the same day through Election Day, cast ballots at local vote centers and vote from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on June 2. San Francisco voters began receiving mail ballots on May 1, the city’s drop boxes opened on May 4, and vote-by-mail ballots must be postmarked no later than June 2. Even with those options, San Francisco’s early vote tracker showed only 46,622 ballots returned out of 533,522, an 8 percent return rate. Republicans accounted for 5,535 of those returns, or 12 percent of ballots turned in, compared with 8 percent of the county’s registered voters.

The sharpest local fight is in California’s 11th Congressional District, where Pelosi is retiring after 39 years in the House. It is the first time no incumbent has run there since she was first elected in 1987. The district covers all of San Francisco except a small southeastern section, and California’s top-two system means the two highest finishers in the June primary will advance to November no matter their party. Saikat Chakrabarti has put nearly $5 million of his own money into the race and had raised about $5.2 million by mid-April, while Scott Wiener has been cast by many observers as the front-runner, backed by endorsements that include the California Democratic Party.

The other local contest with immediate budget consequences is Proposition D. The measure would permanently change San Francisco’s Top Executive Pay Tax by comparing compensation against a company’s full workforce instead of just its San Francisco employees, while also raising tax rates on affected businesses. Supporters say it could bring in about $250 million to $300 million a year and it would take a simple majority to pass. It would also bar the Board of Supervisors from lowering the tax without voter approval. A competing Proposition C would also raise the overpaid executive tax, but by less, and would increase the small-business exemption from the city’s gross receipts tax. The controller’s office warned Prop. D could have economic costs, including an average of 944 fewer jobs in any given year over the next 20 years and about $206 million less annual tax revenue.

Statewide, the governor’s race is crowded enough to shape the entire ballot. Shirley N. Weber’s office certified 61 candidates for governor, and if no one wins a majority on Tuesday, the top two will move on to the Nov. 3, 2026 general election. With consultants expecting turnout to stay near 50 percent or below, the last ballots in San Francisco may decide far more than the city’s share of a statewide contest.