Record-Low Snowpack, Heat and Drought Bring Early Fire Danger to Four Corners

San Juan County Fire and Rescue chief David Vega is tracking fuel moisture levels that have no business looking like this in late March. The San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River Basin, which covers the southwest corner of Colorado adjacent to the Four Corners, is sitting at just 21 percent of its normal snowpack. That deficit, compounded by weeks of unseasonable heat and a stubborn drought, has pushed local fire conditions into territory that typically doesn't arrive until early summer.

"So far, this spring is running about a month ahead of what is typical," Vega wrote in an email. "The current heat wave has increased the Energy Release Component, which indicates that the fuels are about 25% drier than we expect this time of year and continue to dry out."

Tom Miller, Farmington Fire Department deputy chief of administration, put it plainly: "Farmington is anticipating a busy fire season that is starting earlier than usual." He described current fire danger in the city as "very high" and said no controlled burns are allowed within city limits until the danger subsides.

Forecasters have warned that record-low snowpack, ongoing drought and above-normal temperatures could fuel an active New Mexico wildfire season, and the numbers bear that out locally. As of March 25, Colorado's statewide snowpack sits at 38 percent of what's normal for the date, still declining from a peak that came weeks early. Two regions that typically hit their respective snowpack peaks in April reached those peaks in late February this year.

The heat is compounding the problem beyond just fire fuels. The New Mexico Department of Health warned residents to watch for heat illness, citing a forecast that "temperatures are expected to exceed 90 degrees across much of New Mexico starting Thursday — dangerously early in the season, before most residents have acclimated to the heat or set up home cooling systems." That warning came in a March 17 news release.

With a historically warm winter and a lackluster snowpack on top of severe drought, New Mexico is in line for an active fire season. "Given the fact that the Climate Prediction Center is calling for an overall warm, dry winter the whole way through, we are really getting set up for a particularly dangerous fire season," said Andrew Mangham, senior service hydrologist for the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office.

Miller said the elevated danger is projected to persist until significant long-term precipitation occurs, with no clear timeline for relief.

Both Vega and Miller are urging San Juan County residents to act now. Clear defensible space around homes and outbuildings, and remove flammable vegetation before conditions worsen further. Develop an evacuation plan that covers pets and livestock, and gather important paperwork, medications and pet food as part of that plan. When an evacuation order comes, follow instructions and go immediately, Miller said.

Miller recommended visiting FireWise online for home hardening and preparedness guidance. He also said the Watch Duty app is helpful for tracking fire activity and evacuation notices in real time.

Meteorologists expect an early and intense start to fire season in the Four Corners region especially, with very low snowpack and a record warm winter already setting the stage — and a prolonged period of exceptional heat and dryness further elevating concern. Without significant rainfall to recharge depleted soils and green up vegetation, the window for a damaging early-season fire across San Juan County will only widen in the weeks ahead.