Apple’s Jan. 29 earnings call tests holiday sales and AI spending

Apple is holding its fiscal first-quarter 2026 webcast and conference call today at 2:00 p.m. Pacific, 5:00 p.m. Eastern, and investors are focusing on the holiday-quarter results for signals about hardware demand, services growth and the company’s AI spending strategy. The report covers the crucial October through December 2025 period and follows a product launch on Jan. 28 that market participants say will feed into sentiment before the call.

Analysts will parse total revenue and the trajectory of Apple’s services business, which the company has promoted as a recurring-revenue buffer against pressure on device margins. iPhone sales remain the single largest lever for holiday-quarter performance, with particular attention on demand in China where Apple’s market share and pricing dynamics can swing global results. Traders are also watching for management commentary on activation trends, channel inventory and any regional weakness that could alter near-term guidance.

Component costs are another live issue. Memory and DRAM prices are reported to be 10 percent to 25 percent higher than a year earlier, a headwind likely to pressure iPhone gross margins. Ming-Chi Kuo, a widely followed analyst, expects those higher memory costs will bite margins but says Apple’s approach is to secure supply and limit retail price increases. Kuo notes Apple negotiates memory prices quarterly and anticipates further price increases in the company’s fiscal second quarter. He adds that Apple will “avoid raising prices as much as possible,” and that at least the starting price of the iPhone 18 models will remain flat.

Kuo also emphasized Apple’s supply leverage, arguing the company can lock in component deals that many rivals cannot: “For most non-AI brands, even if you're willing to pay up, there's no guarantee you'll get the supply. The fact that Apple can lock in a deal like this shows just how much leverage they have.” That negotiating power is central to how investors expect Apple to manage short-term cost pressures while shifting emphasis toward higher-margin services and software over time.

The timing of Apple’s product launch on Jan. 28 gives markets early signals to interpret alongside the earnings figures. Traders will monitor customer reaction, pricing and initial demand indicators that could either reinforce or counter the quarterly metrics.

Apple’s moves into paid creative software with a Creator Studio bundle have stirred broader industry repercussions, prompting scrutiny of legacy software vendors and their pricing models. Adobe’s shares fell 5.4 percent in premarket trading on Jan. 14, closing that session at $309.93, amid investor concern that a lower-priced Apple bundle could undercut subscription revenue. Adobe has projected fiscal 2026 revenue between $25.90 billion and $26.10 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $23.30 to $23.50, and its own fiscal first-quarter results are scheduled for March 12.

Market participants say the tape will react to any early signs of customer attrition, pricing shifts or changes in content creation velocity driven by generative AI. For investors watching Apple today, the core question is whether holiday-quarter strength, supply leverage and services growth can offset rising component costs and a fast-evolving competitive landscape.