Argentina forecasters lift inflation outlook, cut 2026 growth estimate

Argentina’s stabilization story is losing some of its sheen. Forecasters now expect consumer prices to finish 2026 up 30.5%, 1.4 percentage points above their previous estimate, while cutting the economic growth outlook to 2.8% from 3.3%.

The shift goes to the heart of Javier Milei’s promise that painful reforms would bring quick normalcy. Instead, the latest numbers suggest a slower, messier adjustment, with inflation still high enough to erode wages and force households to keep spending defensively. For investors, the message is just as clear: price stability remains fragile, and confidence in Argentina’s policy path is still not fully secured.

The Banco Central de la República Argentina’s Market Expectations Survey, known as the REM, is a monthly poll of specialists, and the central bank says the forecasts are not its own projections. The March 2026 survey, published April 8 after responses were collected from March 27 to March 31, included 46 participants. In that survey, analysts had expected 2026 real GDP growth of 3.3% on average, with the Top 10 at 3.2%.

The central bank’s own data show why forecasters remain cautious. March inflation was 3.4% month on month and 32.6% year on year, while the median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months stood at 23.8% in the March REM. That gap between current price pressure and expected disinflation shows how sensitive expectations remain in an economy where credibility still matters.

A 30.5% year-end forecast would still mark a sharp drop from the extreme inflation Argentina endured in 2024 and 2025, but it also implies that the descent is happening more slowly than policymakers hoped. Earlier warnings that inflation would cool by less than expected, including concerns about an oil shock tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, have only added to that caution.

The weaker growth forecast matters because it suggests inflation is not being brought down without cost. Higher prices, tighter policy or softer real incomes may continue to restrain demand, limiting the rebound that Milei has sought to showcase as proof that austerity and deregulation can work. Until inflation expectations settle more decisively, households will keep feeling the squeeze and Argentina’s recovery will remain vulnerable to each new setback.