Baseball America Study Weighs Tradeoffs of Elite Prospects Skipping Triple-A

Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle headline a Baseball America data study that asks a blunt question: can elite prospects reach the big leagues without Triple‑A seasoning? The study finds major declines in lower‑level plate appearances, including an 80‑PA drop at each Class A level and a Double‑A fall from 525 PAs to 424 PAs.

In a March 3, 2026 piece, J.J. Cooper at Baseball America dug into whether elite prospects — specifically names like No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin and top middle‑infield prospect Kevin McGonigle — can succeed in the big leagues without spending time at Triple‑A. Coope The provided extract of Cooper’s report was truncated at that point in the material supplied for this story.

Cooper’s analysis covers the past 15-plus years and breaks the declines down by origin. College hitters are getting nearly 250 fewer PAs on average in Class A and below and 125 fewer PAs in Double‑A and Triple‑A. High school hitters show a 300‑PA drop in Class A and below and an 85‑PA dip at Double‑A/Triple‑A. International hitters are averaging 300 fewer PAs in Class A and below and 200 fewer PAs in Double‑A/Triple‑A.

The study drills into first‑round outcomes. The average college first‑rounder is receiving 140 fewer PAs in Double‑A before promotion, dropping from 466 PAs to 326 PAs. Those college first‑rounders now average 238 PAs at Triple‑A, compared with 252 in the 2016-2020 timeframe. High school first‑rounders who reach the majors have lost about 400 PAs in Class A and Rookie ball, falling from 1,067 PAs to 770 on average. The one level holding roughly steady is Triple‑A, which Cooper notes remains “roughly in line with the experience level hitters were getting from 2016-2020.”

Baseball America’s conversation around the topic ran across its podcasts. Hot Sheet Show episode 96, hosted by J.J. Cooper, Geoff Pontes, and Ian Cundall, put “Outlook for prospects who skip Triple‑A” at the 12:20 mark and flagged Nolan McLean’s availability for Team USA at 21:30 with the line that McLean is “dealing with vertigo.” The Hot Sheet Show scheduling note in the episode listings reads: “The Hot Sheet Show airs live on the BA YouTube channel every week on Tuesday at 3 p.m. Give us a sub, and we'll see you then!”

Related BA programming ties into the same player‑development frame. The Future Projection mailbag item says, “Ben and Carlos answer a number of draft questions, including how teams will approach scouting after missing on Konnor Griffin.” A Prospect Podcast Deep Dive on the Baltimore Orioles lists segments and timestamps including Samuel Basallo at 3:50, Nate George at 19:10, Esteban Mejia at 22:15, and Enrique Bradfield at 24:30.

Cooper’s numbers compel follow‑up reporting before drawing definitive development prescriptions. The next steps are obtaining the full March 3 Cooper article and its dataset to confirm sample selection, the definition of “skipping Triple‑A,” and the MLB success metrics used. Teams, scouts, and front offices will be watching whether reduced lower‑level reps correlate with shorter adjustment periods in the majors or more busted prospects, and Cooper’s data will be the first paper trail to check when those decisions are made.