BetMGM cuts 2026 revenue outlook after weak online sports betting start

BetMGM lowered its 2026 revenue forecast after a weaker-than-expected start in online sports betting, a warning sign for an industry that has long sold investors on rapid state-by-state expansion and a never-ending parade of big-event handle.

The joint venture between MGM Resorts International and Entain plc now expects full-year net revenue of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion, down from its earlier target of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion. The reset matters beyond one operator because BetMGM has been one of the clearest bellwethers for how much growth the U.S. wagering market can still deliver, and at what cost.

BetMGM’s first quarter still showed growth, but not enough to support the earlier outlook. Net revenue rose 6% from a year earlier to $696 million. Online sports revenue increased 4% to $203 million, while iGaming revenue climbed 9% to $481 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 11% to $25 million. Even so, average monthly active users fell 9% to 975,000, suggesting the business is becoming more dependent on squeezing more value from fewer players rather than simply adding customers.

The company said online sports results were hit by “player friendly sports results,” increased promotional generosity and a more competitive environment. Handle still rose 3% to $4.218 billion, but the gross gaming revenue hold improved only modestly, to 8.8% from 8.2%. That mix points to a market that is growing, but not cleanly. Operators are spending heavily to defend share while customer acquisition gets harder and more expensive.

The quarter also included a full sports calendar, with the NFL playoffs, the Super Bowl, the Olympics and March Madness all in play, yet the sports unit still posted only modest growth. BetMGM said it held 13% gross gaming revenue market share across its 23 online sports-betting states and four online-casino jurisdictions, including Missouri, and its Nevada handle rose 11% year over year. That kind of reach helps, but it also shows how crowded the field has become.

Even after the revenue trim, BetMGM kept its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook at $300 million to $350 million, though it now expects results toward the lower end of that range. It also said it remains on track to reach $500 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2027. That confidence follows a strong 2025, when full-year net revenue reached $2.8 billion, up 33%, EBITDA was $220 million and the company returned $270 million to MGM Resorts and Entain in the fourth quarter. The message from the latest forecast is clear: the market is still expanding, but the easy gains from U.S. sports betting are fading, and the next phase will likely be slower, pricier and far less forgiving.