California governor's race tightens as top three vie for two spots

A crowded California governor’s race has become a contest to avoid being left out. Under the state’s top-two primary system, only the two highest vote-getters advance to November, and a new poll shows Steve Hilton, Katie Porter and Chad Bianco separated by just a few points as more than 50 names crowd the ballot.

The Public Policy Institute of California’s February 3 to 11 survey found five candidates bunched at the top, with none above 15 percent. An ABC7 Los Angeles poll reported on February 26 put Hilton at 15 percent, Porter at 13 percent, Bianco at 12 percent, Eric Swalwell at 11 percent and Tom Steyer at 10 percent, with 10 percent undecided and a 3.1 percent margin of error. In a race this tight, the difference between first and third may matter less than finishing second and surviving the cut.

That is why the field has been organizing around coalitions as much as messages. Hilton has been positioned as the Republican standard-bearer, Bianco has stayed close enough to challenge for one of the runoff spots, and the Democratic lane has remained fractured among Porter, Steyer, Xavier Becerra, Betty Yee, Antonio Villaraigosa, Matt Mahan and Tony Thurmond. Becerra’s profile rose after Swalwell suspended his campaign in April, but the late spring scramble only underscored how many credible contenders are still dividing the same voters.

The California Democratic Party’s February convention ended without an endorsement for governor because none of the eight major candidates reached the 60 percent threshold. That failure captured the larger problem for Democrats in a state that leans heavily blue: if the party splits too many ways, it could leave the top-two runoff with two Republicans. Political observers have warned that outcome would be damaging far beyond the governor’s race, because it could pull down turnout in other statewide and congressional contests.

The vote arrives June 2, with secure ballot drop-off locations opened May 5 and same-day voter registration available through Election Day for Californians who missed the May 18 deadline. Ballots began going out in early May, and the campaign has centered on affordability, the top issue identified by PPIC. Voters have also shown an appetite for the contest, with about six in ten likely voters saying they were satisfied with the field and about seven in ten interested in town halls and debates.

That combination of tight polling, a splintered Democratic field and California’s unusual primary math has made the current race less about who comes in first and more about who avoids finishing third.