Coca-Cola warns of muted 2026 growth after missing Q4 revenue targets

Coca-Cola reported a fourth-quarter revenue shortfall and signaled a cooler growth trajectory for 2026, forecasting organic revenue of 4% to 5% after posting net sales of $11.82 billion, below the LSEG consensus of $12.03 billion. The miss, and comments about weaker demand in North America and parts of Asia, sent the stock lower in premarket trading with reported moves ranging from about 1% to nearly 4% depending on the time of measurement.

The quarter delivered some mixed financials. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.58, ahead of the $0.56 expected by LSEG analysts, while GAAP net income attributable to shareholders was $2.27 billion, or $0.53 per share, up from $2.2 billion, or $0.51 a year earlier. Net sales rose 2% year over year, and organic revenue increased 5% in the quarter. Unit case volumes rose 1% for the quarter and were flat for the full year, and average prices were up roughly 4% for 2025, reflecting the company’s strategy of passing along higher input costs.

For the full year 2026 the company also forecast comparable adjusted earnings per share growth of 7% to 8%. The revenue outlook sits below the street expectation of about 5.3% for organic revenue growth, a gap that prompted analysts to call the guidance conservative. Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala said, “(The forecast) reads conservative, but is appropriate for the start of the year. Street likely wanted more.”

Company executives pointed to softer demand in North America and parts of Asia, and to changing consumer preferences, as the principal headwinds. U.S. shoppers described as budget-conscious have pushed back against multiple rounds of price increases as Coca-Cola raised beverage prices to offset higher costs. At the same time, management has leaned on higher-margin and innovation-led segments: its water, sports, coffee and tea division outperformed the rest of the portfolio, and brands such as Smartwater and Fairlife were cited as bright spots.

Coca-Cola has also steered toward zero-sugar sodas, sports drinks and bottled teas as U.S. consumers shift to lower-sugar options amid rising adoption of appetite-suppressing weight-loss drugs. The company acknowledged limits in its innovation pipeline, noting in company commentary that “While we have made some progress with our overall success rates over the past several years, our innovation today is not where it needs to be.”

Competitive moves across the sector amplify the pressure on pricing. Rival PepsiCo said it would cut prices on key snacks such as Lay’s and Doritos and is pushing single-serve packs to regain traction with cost-conscious consumers. Those actions underscore a broader industry recalibration as packaged-food and beverage firms weigh pricing, portioning and product mix to protect volume.

The results come as Coca-Cola prepares a leadership transition: Henrique Braun is set to take over as CEO on March 31, 2026. Investors will be watching how the new chief balances price, promotion and innovation to restore volume momentum after a year in which overall case volumes were unchanged.