Cuba's divided residents weigh Trump as hope, threat and test of change

A simple question to residents of Cuba cuts through years of slogans and counter-slogans: what would you say to the U.S. president if you could speak to him now? On the island, where blackouts, low wages and shortages have become daily facts of life, the answers reveal a country divided not just by politics but by survival.

That divide has deep roots. The 1959 Cuban Revolution and the nationalizations that followed set off decades of hostility, sanctions and embargo policy between Havana and Washington. The two governments reopened diplomatic relations in 2015 after more than 50 years of enmity, but the thaw never fully held. Under Donald Trump, the relationship hardened again, and the current U.S. posture has kept Cuba under intense pressure.

The State Department said on January 31, 2025, that within Trump’s first two weeks it had rescinded major last-minute Cuba policy changes from the prior administration. It also kept Cuba on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. In May 2026, the administration added further sanctions on 11 Cuban regime elites and three government organizations, saying the moves were meant to pressure Havana and support democracy. Cuban authorities and many critics argue the effect is to deepen hardship for ordinary people.

That hardship shapes opinion on the island. Reuters and AP-era reporting has shown Cubans ranging from hope that Trump might force change to fear that he will make daily life worse. Some residents see him as a possible savior, while others regard him as a threat or as the worst thing to happen to them. Those reactions are rooted less in abstract ideology than in practical questions of electricity, food, migration and whether any outside pressure will improve life or tighten the squeeze.

The United States’ Cuba policy also remains a political force in Florida. Florida International University’s Cuba Poll, released on October 23, 2024, found 68% of likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County planned to vote for Trump, compared with 23% for Kamala Harris and 5% undecided. A 2026 Miami Herald poll cited by local reporting found 79% of South Florida Cubans supported some form of U.S. military intervention, underscoring how exile politics continue to pull Washington toward a harder line even as many people on the island plead for relief from the costs of confrontation.