Danny Murphy backs Manchester City over Arsenal in title race

Danny Murphy saw the pressure points in the Premier League title race and leaned toward Manchester City, not Arsenal, as the season entered its decisive stretch. After Liverpool lost 1-0 to Crystal Palace at Anfield and Arsenal fell 2-0 to Aston Villa at the Emirates, City moved two points clear on 73, with Arsenal and Liverpool both stuck on 71 and all three sides having played the same number of matches.

The numbers strengthened Murphy’s view. Premier League analysis showed City had the best remaining run-in, with their final opponents averaging 43.8 points that season. Arsenal’s remaining fixtures were only slightly tougher, at 44.3 points on average, while Liverpool’s ran to 47.2 points. In a race where every dropped point became decisive, City were also being tipped to become the first club in Premier League history to win four consecutive titles.

Murphy’s confidence reflected more than the table. City were seen as “clicking” at the right time, with Pep Guardiola’s side again able to rotate without losing control, a quality that often separated them from challengers when the margin for error disappeared. Arsenal, managed by Mikel Arteta, and Liverpool both had the quality to stay in the race, but City’s depth, tactical flexibility and calm in the run-in gave them a narrower path to the finish line.

By 17 May 2024, City were back on top and held a game in hand after beating Tottenham Hotspur 2-0. From there, the equation was simple: beat West Ham United on the final day, or match Arsenal’s result, and the title was theirs. If City and Arsenal had ended level on points, goal difference would have settled it first, then goals scored, then head-to-head points, then head-to-head away goals, with a playoff at a neutral stadium if they still could not be separated.

City did not need the tie-breakers. They beat West Ham United 3-1 on the final day to seal the 2023/24 Premier League title, their fourth straight championship and eighth top-flight crown overall. Murphy’s call had proved right because the same City strengths that kept them in contention for years, squad depth, composure and control under pressure, carried them through when the title race tightened hardest.