Democrats lead GOP by 5 points in battle for Congress, NBC poll finds

Donald Trump’s 42% approval rating has become the central drag on Republicans heading into the midterms, but the Democratic edge in the fight for Congress is broader than anti-Trump sentiment alone. In a new national NBC News poll, 49% of registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress, compared with 44% for Republicans and 7% who were unsure. The five-point margin was close to Democrats’ standing in March and still large enough to shape the most competitive House and Senate races.

The clearest warning sign for Republicans came from independents, who favored Democrats by 12 points, 46% to 34%. Trump also drew especially weak marks on inflation and the economy, and around two-thirds of voters said he has not lived up to expectations on the economy and the cost of living. That suggests part of the Democratic edge is plainly a referendum on Trump himself, but the poll also shows a more durable pattern: Democrats held stronger positions among Black voters, Latino voters, voters under 50 and college-educated voters, while Republicans remained ahead among men, white voters and voters without a college degree.

That split matters because Republicans still hold narrow majorities in both chambers. Democrats need a net gain of just three House seats to retake the House, but four Senate seats to win that chamber, a far steeper climb given that several of the likeliest pickup opportunities are in states Trump won by double digits in 2024. The math points to the races most likely to move first: House districts where independents and college-educated voters decide outcomes, and Senate contests where Republican nominees will try to separate themselves from Trump in states that are otherwise tougher terrain for Democrats.

The NBC survey, sponsored by More Perfect and conducted by Bill McInturff and Jeff Horwitt, showed little change from March, when Democrats led the congressional ballot by 6 points. It was smaller than the 8-point Democratic lead NBC measured in October 2025, when 52% blamed Trump and congressional Republicans for the government shutdown and 42% blamed Democrats. That earlier spike showed how quickly Trump can pull the race toward Democrats when he dominates the political environment.

The longer arc is still important. NBC’s generic-ballot results were tied in May 2022 and gave Democrats a 10-point lead in June 2018, the kind of margin that preceded a blue-wave midterm. This year’s five-point edge is not that large, but it is broad enough to keep Republicans on defense unless they can convince voters their candidates, not Trump, define the ballot in November.