Derby-Exacta Expert Michelle Yu Reveals 2026 San Felipe Stakes Best Bets

Michelle Yu, the horseplayer who hit a Kentucky Derby exacta, put her San Felipe Stakes best bets into circulation ahead of Santa Anita’s March 7 running, setting up a betting day that centers on Bob Baffert’s Brant at a 1-1 morning line and a winner’s prize of 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The Grade 2 San Felipe, at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, paid $200,000 and drew a seven-horse field that now shapes the Derby picture from Southern California.

Post time is inconsistent across pre-race listings: AmericasBestRacing shows Race 8 with a 6:30 p.m. ET post time, while the Daily Racing Form lists post time at 6:41 p.m. ET. The line of favorites from FanDuel had Brant at 1-1, So Happy at 2-1, Potente 9-2, and Secured Freedom 8-1, with the full post order and connections matching the program: Flashy Fritz (Adrian Escobedo, Dan Blacker) 30-1; Start the Ride (Armando Ayuso, Dan Blacker) 12-1; Secured Freedom (Kazushi Kimura, Tim Yakteen) 8-1; Brant (Florent Geroux, Bob Baffert) 1-1; Potente (Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert) 9-2; So Happy (Mike Smith, Mark Glatt) 2-1; Robusta (Emisael Jaramillo, Doug O’Neill) 20-1.

FanDuel’s preview made Secured Freedom a center piece of its betting plan and laid out the case in blunt terms: "He has to move forward off of a belated third in the Robert B. Lewis last out on February 7, but he is likely to get a better setup this time around, with a lot of speed battling in front of him. Though he runs on well late, he is tactical enough to sit a few lengths back and not drop all the way to the back, a running style that suits Santa Anita well. And, though his Lewis was a bit of a disappointment, trainer Tim Yakteen’s horses can develop at a price in their second try at a route distance." DRF handicapper David Aragona agreed, listing "Aragona’s top pick: No. 3 Secured Freedom."

Mike Beer at DRF put his top endorsement on So Happy based on back-to-back pattern races: "Beer is a fan of both his races – he won his maiden at 38-1 before winning the San Vicente after getting shuffled back early, making a move to get out of trouble, and chasing down the leader through the stretch. Beer believes his running style sets him up well for a trip here. The question is whether he handles the added distance going two turns for the first time. Beer is willing to find out."

Tactical sparks matter. AmericasBestRacing raised Flashy Fritz’s history as a potential rabbit and the Start the Ride pace-kick setup: "His only win in nine starts came in a one-mile maiden claiming race held in November 2025 at Del Mar. That was four trainers ago as he’s either been claimed or just switched conditioners each race since. Has some speed and he could be in this race as a ‘rabbit’ to help stablemate Start the Ride’s chances, especially as he’s not Triple Crown nominated." On Start the Ride: "Interesting Cal-bred comes in off of a rallying 1 ¾-length win in the 1 1/16-mile California Chrome Cal Cup Derby Jan. 17 at this track. Looks to be on an ascending trajectory and new stablemate Flashy Fritz drawn to his inside could help create a solid pace to set up his kick."

Potente brings pedigree and price: the Into Mischief colt shows a listed $120,000 figure in the BloodHorse table, a 2024 FTSAUG sale line at $2,400,000, and a TrueNicks grade A++ — notable against So Happy’s modest early sale history that culminated in a $150,000 OBSMAR 2025 price. Robusta and Secured Freedom bring Lewis Stakes form: Secured Freedom rallied to third in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 7, while Robusta pressed the pace and faded to sixth.

FanDuel’s Q&A put the favorite question in perspective: "Brant has been tabbed as the 1-1 morning-line favorite, coming off a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He is likely to hold as the favorite to post time, between his Grade 1 class and the fact that Baffert horses take money. Still – Baffert had the 1-1 morning-line favorite Barnes in the 2025 edition of this race and was defeated, so his heavy favorites are not all mortal locks."

The San Felipe’s winner would clinch a Derby gate spot with 50 points, and the day’s tactical mix — late runners like Secured Freedom and So Happy, two-turn debut questions for Potente and So Happy, and a possible rabbit in Flashy Fritz — framed a race that will ripple through the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Thepress updated local metadata at March 7, 2026 @ 5:54 pm and listed clear skies with a low of 47°F in Brentwood as handicappers and bettors worked their angles.