Disney tests Star Wars box-office power with The Mandalorian and Grogu

Disney put Grogu back on the big screen Friday in its sharpest test yet of whether streaming-era fandom can still fill theaters. The studio’s new Star Wars film, The Mandalorian and Grogu, arrived after a seven-year pause in the franchise’s movie output, and its opening weekend was being watched as a verdict on whether a character born on Disney+ could still drive theatrical sales.

The stakes were clear inside Disney. Lucasfilm’s last Star Wars movie, 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker, closed out a burst of five films in five years that brought in nearly $6 billion worldwide, but the studio then pulled back after deciding it had pushed the franchise too hard. Disney had acquired Lucasfilm from George Lucas in 2012 for about $4.1 billion, betting that Star Wars could be rebuilt across film, television and merchandise. Grogu, the small green character first embraced by fans as Baby Yoda, became the clearest proof of that strategy on streaming.

Now Disney is trying to convert that popularity into ticket sales. Analysts expected the movie to take in roughly $75 million to $100 million in the United States and Canada over Memorial Day weekend, with one estimate near $85 million through Monday. Trade tracking also put Thursday-night previews at about $12 million, a strong early signal for a film with a reported production budget of about $165 million.

The film, directed by Jon Favreau, stars Pedro Pascal as the helmeted Mandalorian bounty hunter, who teams with Grogu to free a prisoner in a galaxy still scarred by the Empire’s collapse. Disney’s official description says Imperial warlords are scattered across the galaxy and the New Republic is relying on Din Djarin and Grogu for help. Official materials also list Sigourney Weaver as Colonel Ward and Jeremy Allen White as Rotta the Hutt, and say the film was shot for IMAX.

The opening also served as a referendum on Star Wars’ broader movie future. Disney and Lucasfilm announced in June 2023 that two new Star Wars films would land in 2026, one on May 22 and another on Dec. 18, signaling that the studio wanted the franchise back in theaters after years dominated by Disney+.

A solid debut would strengthen that plan and reinforce the merchandise engine that turned Grogu into a global pop-culture force through toys, clothing and other licensed products. It would also compare favorably with Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened over Memorial Day weekend in 2018 with about $103 million and was still judged a flop because its budget was much larger. With Star Wars films now having grossed more than $10 billion worldwide, Disney’s latest gamble was whether nostalgia, spectacle and streaming-era loyalty could still work together at the box office.