Dunlap to face LePage in high-stakes Maine House race

Matt Dunlap’s victory in Maine’s Democratic primary turned a local nomination fight into one of the most closely watched House races in the country. The progressive Democrat will face former Gov. Paul LePage in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District on November 3, 2026, in a contest that could help determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The matchup carries unusual weight because the seat opened only after Democratic Rep. Jared Golden retired and declined to seek reelection. Golden’s departure gave Republicans a major pickup opportunity in a district the Cook Political Report rates R+4, a modest but meaningful Republican lean in a rural region shaped by fishing and logging. The Associated Press has said Maine’s House primaries are setting the stage for a midterm election in which the state could play a critical role in deciding control of both chambers of Congress.

Dunlap won the Democratic nomination after a ranked-choice runoff, coming from behind to defeat state Sen. Joe Baldacci in the final round of voting. Maine uses ranked-choice voting for federal and statewide offices, a system that allows voters to rank candidates and can produce a winner only after later rounds of counting if no one secures an outright majority. Dunlap’s path mirrored a broader Maine pattern in which races often hinge on second- and third-choice support as much as first-round strength.

The general election will now test whether Democrats can hold a district that has been competitive enough to reward both parties. Golden won the seat in 2024 by a narrow margin over Republican Austin Theriault, and he also prevailed in 2022 after ranked-choice tabulation. That record shows how thin the margins have been in a district where a small shift in swing voters can decide the outcome.

LePage, who won the Republican nomination, gives the GOP a high-profile nominee with statewide name recognition and a clear contrast to Dunlap’s more progressive profile. Republicans view the race as one of their best chances to gain ground in the House, while Democrats are banking on Dunlap’s appeal in a district that has already shown it can split its vote. The result in November will be read far beyond Maine as a measure of whether a progressive Democrat can survive in a Trump-friendly district without losing the center.