Economists pick France to win 2026 World Cup, Spain second
Economists gave France 35 percent to win the 2026 World Cup, with Spain at 31 percent and Brazil tipped as the biggest disappointment.
Economists are usually paid to track inflation and growth, not penalty-box instincts, but a global Reuters poll used the 2026 World Cup to test where markets and modelers thought the trophy would land. Their answer was France, narrowly ahead of Spain, in a field that will be unlike any previous edition: 48 teams, 104 matches and 16 host cities across Canada, Mexico and the United States.
France took 35 percent of the vote from 160 economists around the world, while Spain drew 31 percent. Argentina, Portugal and England completed the top five. Brazil, meanwhile, was seen as the biggest likely disappointment, a sharp signal from a group that spends most of its time on growth forecasts rather than football brackets.
The poll carried extra weight because the tournament itself is changing shape. FIFA says the 2026 World Cup will open on Thursday, June 11, 2026, with Mexico facing South Africa in Mexico City, and finish on Sunday, July 19, 2026, with the final in New York/New Jersey. With 48 teams and 104 matches spread across three countries, the first edition of the expanded competition will be harder to handicap than any recent World Cup, even for people who rarely watch beyond the biggest knockout games.
What pushed France to the front was not mystique but measurable depth. Respondents pointed to a squad that blends experienced stars with younger talent, and to Kylian Mbappe as a possible defining force of the tournament. Cathal Kennedy, a senior economist at RBC in London, said France looked well equipped to go one better after the disappointment of the 2022 final. Didier Deschamps also gave France an institutional edge: he could become the first coach since Vittorio Pozzo in 1938 to win two World Cups, and the only one to do it after also lifting the trophy as a player.
The result fit the broad consensus that France and Spain are the statistical favorites, even if the margin was thin. Reuters described the poll as a four-yearly diversion from macroeconomic forecasting, and in an era shaped by wars, energy shocks and arguments over whether inflation is transitory or persistent, the detour offered a revealing snapshot of how global audiences see power, depth and form translating into football success.
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