Forecast Projects 2.4 Million Acre-Feet Spring Inflow, Worsening Lake Powell Outlook

A February forecast from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center projects roughly 2.4 million acre-feet of spring inflow to Lake Powell, a sharp drop that deepens operational risks for recreation, hydropower and legally mandated downstream deliveries. Forecasters say the decline reflects a winter of weak snowpack across most of the Upper Basin and warm, dry conditions that reduced runoff prospects.

CBRFC forecaster Brenda Alcorn warned that “Snowpack conditions are poor across almost the entire area.” Many Upper Basin snow-monitoring sites recorded record or near-record-low readings in January. Snowpack provides about 95% of Utah’s water supply and the vast majority of the Colorado River’s water, so low mountain snow directly translates into lower reservoir inflows. The Green River basin remains a relative bright spot because of better early-January snow, but that is not enough to counter the broader deficit.

Lake Powell is already at strained levels. Storage sits near 26% of capacity, and National Park Service data showed the lake elevation was 29 feet lower on July 23, 2025 than the same date a year earlier. The NPS warned that continued declines will affect the functionality of all launch ramps and said Halls Crossing Launch Ramp could become inoperable as soon as early August. The agency urged boaters to follow its guidance: “It is the vessel operator’s responsibility to know the minimum water depth required for launching your boat based on the characteristics of your vessel and trailer. Boaters are strongly encouraged to check the operational status of their preferred launch site before launching.”

Flaming Gorge runoff is forecast to be only about 65% of normal this spring; forecasters characterized that as roughly 38% below its median and among the lowest springtime runs on record. Federal officials previously used the Drought Response Operations Agreement to release water from Wyoming’s Flaming Gorge Reservoir in 2022, and agencies are considering similar releases now, though they have not identified which reservoirs or how much water would be drawn. Kartha cautioned that “Even with that DROA release... it is quite possible that there might still be a need for reductions into Lake Powell releases,” and described some of the numbers as “abysmal,” warning of “devastating impacts” if hot, dry conditions persist.

Low inflows also threaten Glen Canyon Dam’s power generation. Reporting and advocacy groups note the reservoir is perilously close to elevations where hydropower could be curtailed, with one source stating Lake Powell is “just 75 feet above the water level were hydropower production is threatened.” Reduced generation would affect utilities that rely on Glen Canyon output and complicate management of upstream-downstream delivery obligations.

What this means for Southwest Adventure Vacations readers is immediate and practical: verify launch-site status, factor potential ramp closures into trip planning, and expect more frequent adjustments to boating operations and outfitters’ schedules. Water managers and federal agencies will issue updated forecasts and potential DROA decisions as the season unfolds, and spring runoff will determine whether the outlook improves or worsens.