Fuel spikes could permanently curb U.S. driving and gas demand

Americans are already using less gasoline, and the latest price shock may lock that in. U.S. motor gasoline consumption averaged 8.9 million barrels per day in 2025, down 1% from 2024 and 4% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, even as vehicle miles traveled kept rising more slowly and fuel efficiency improved.

The pressure on drivers intensified after the Iran conflict sent pump prices sharply higher. CNBC reported on March 31, 2026, that the national average hit $4.018 a gallon, the highest since August 2022, and AAA data showed prices had climbed more than 30% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February. That kind of jump does more than strain household budgets. It changes how people drive, what they buy, and how much fuel they consume long after the headline price eases.

The Energy Information Administration expects the decline to continue. In April 2026, the agency said gasoline consumption should keep falling in 2026 and 2027 as forecast fuel efficiency increases and miles driven grow more slowly. Its June 16, 2026, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, with the next release set for June 23, shows how closely officials are still tracking a market shaped by supply shocks and consumer behavior.

The broader economic effect reaches well beyond the pump. Brookings estimated that a $1-per-gallon increase in gasoline prices would cost a median-earning, two-driver household about $70 more a month, or roughly 1% of post-tax income. That is enough to push families toward fewer discretionary trips, smaller vehicles, and more efficient engines. Lower gasoline demand also matters for refiners, which depend on throughput, and for federal and state gas-tax revenue, which rises and falls with gallons sold.

History suggests the behavior change can last. A University of Pennsylvania summary of research through the Kleinman Energy Center found that people exposed to the 1979 oil crisis during ages 15 to 18 were still less likely to drive to work about 20 years later, with the effect strongest in urban areas and among lower-income workers. The International Energy Agency said the Middle East conflict has caused an unprecedented disruption to global fuel markets and led governments to deploy conservation measures, consumer support, and supply-side action, including its largest-ever emergency oil-stock release. The immediate shock may fade, but the structural shift in how Americans use gasoline could endure.