Global coffee prices slide as supply outlook improves, roasters adapt

Coffee markets softened heading into the new year as the International Coffee Organization's Composite Indicator Price averaged 304.68 US cents per pound in December 2025, a 7.8 percent decline from November. The move follows a drop from 343.92 cents per pound in mid-November to a low of 283.21 cents before a partial rebound, signaling a return of some price relief for buyers who had been managing tight budgets.

The price slide reflected a more favorable global supply outlook, less policy uncertainty and currency movements, most notably a depreciation of the Brazilian real. Those shifts have changed the calculus for Arabica and Robusta: Robusta has continued to underperform relative to Arabica, even as overall global exports rose 3.8 percent in October-November 2025 to 10.473 million bags and Robusta shipments surged 21.8 percent to 4.11 million bags. For importers and contract buyers, that means negotiating power has edged back toward buyers, but currency swings and lot quality still matter.

For roasters and café operators tracking input costs, the immediate takeaway is practical. Lower average composite prices can narrow green costs, but volatility remains. Verify contract terms and reassess forward coverage given the Brazilian real's role in pricing. If your espresso blends rely on Robusta for crema and cost leverage, expect some downward pressure on Robusta-derived costs for the moment, which may be a window to test increased percentages or try single-origin Robusta inserts at lower price points.

At the shop level, product and gear news arrived alongside market developments. San Diego's Ocean Beach welcomed Frequent Coffee, a new roaster committed to high-quality decaf crafted with tight-ratio brews to support strong daily consumption. That focus speaks to a broader demand: customers want decaf that keeps flavor intensity and daily drinkability without sacrificing extraction dynamics. Try tight-ratio decaf shots or pour-over recipes to evaluate how decaffeinated lots respond compared with your regulars.

Precision gear is also evolving for smaller workflows. Acaia introduced the Pyxis Black, a compact scale measuring 2.55 by 2.55 inches with accuracy to the thousandth of a gram. That level of precision is useful for micro-dosing, replication of espresso tweaks and consistent pour-over dialing when working with small yields or concentrated recipes.

What this means now is actionable: monitor Robusta spreads and currency headlines, recalibrate coverage or blend ratios where opportunity exists, and consider investing in small-scale precision tools if consistency is a priority. Expect prices to remain responsive to supply updates and exchange rates, so keep tasting, testing and negotiating as markets settle.