Global stocks seen rising in 2026, gains likely to trail 2025 surge

A Reuters poll of equity strategists published on November 26 indicated cautious optimism for global equities in 2026, with most forecasts pointing to modest gains but a clear expectation that the rally seen in 2025 will not be repeated. The poll, reported by Hari Kishan and republished on Investing.com, found that while the majority of strategists expect indexes to end next year higher than today, more than half anticipate a market correction in the near term driven by valuation concentration in a handful of mega cap AI winners and ongoing geopolitical and tariff uncertainties.

The backdrop for those forecasts was a 2025 market environment in which a small cohort of large technology companies, many positioned as beneficiaries of artificial intelligence adoption, drove much of the advance. That concentration left strategists concerned about downside risk should investor sentiment shift or policy pressures intensify. The poll’s median forecast for the S&P 500 projected further gains into 2026, but at a pace materially slower than 2025’s performance, signaling a reversion toward more typical return patterns.

Market implications of the poll’s findings are manifold. A continued but slower advance in broad indexes would likely favor more diversified exposure and active risk management, particularly for institutional investors facing performance benchmarks. The expectation of a correction in the coming months increases the probability of higher intra year volatility, which can compress valuations in the most richly priced names and create opportunities in beaten down sectors. Strategists also flagged that tariff risks and geopolitics could amplify swings in cyclical sectors and trade sensitive markets, complicating portfolio positioning for investors with large international exposure.

Policy considerations are also central to the outlook. Central banks will be monitoring developments closely. If equity volatility spills into credit markets or weighs on real economic activity, monetary authorities could alter their communication or operational stances, even if headline inflation remains under control. Trade policy remains a wildcard, with tariff moves capable of shifting profit margins and investment plans across manufacturing and technology supply chains, thereby reinforcing strategist concerns captured in the poll.

Longer term, the poll reflects an adjustment in expectations as markets move from a narrative of concentrated, technology led outperformance toward a more balanced, breadth driven recovery. That transition could be gradual and intermittently interrupted by corrections, as foreseen by more than half of respondents. For investors the message is clear. Returns in 2026 are more likely to accrue from broader market participation and active risk allocation rather than a repeat of last year’s narrow leadership. The Reuters poll underscores a turning point where optimism about corporate earnings and technological innovation is tempered by valuation discipline and geopolitical caution.