Gold breaks $4,800 as safe-haven flows drive record surge

Spot gold surged to record highs on Wednesday as investors rushed into safe havens amid a fresh bout of geopolitical and trade uncertainty. In Asian trading Reuters reported spot bullion around $4,821 an ounce after an intraday peak above $4,840/oz, a roughly 1.2 percent rise on the session that pushed prices past a key psychological barrier.

Markets had already been on an upward trajectory. IDN Financials recorded a near 2 percent jump on Jan. 20 to $4,763.38/oz after the market first pierced the roughly $4,700 level that day, and Laodong Vn reported that spot gold “strongly broke through” $4,700/oz before exceeding $4,800/oz on the morning of Jan. 21. ScanX Trade quoted spot gold at $4,806/oz (+0.8 percent) during the Asian session, while Economic Times cited a $4,818.03/oz print following an earlier $4,836.24/oz peak at 0125 GMT.

The immediate catalyst for the rally was a spike in risk aversion linked in multiple reports to tensions involving the United States, European governments and Greenland. Economic Times and IDN Financials cited comments from President Donald Trump, including that there was “no going back” on his aim to control Greenland and that he had refused to rule out taking the island by force, remarks that prompted threats of retaliatory measures from allied countries. Laodong and IDN also said Mr. Trump had threatened tariffs and taxes on several European countries, intensifying market jitters.

Dollar weakness and expectations for easier U.S. monetary policy provided additional fuel. IDN and other outlets noted a softer U.S. dollar, which makes bullion less expensive for international buyers. ScanX, Laodong and IDN reported that markets are pricing in potential Federal Reserve easing from mid‑2026, with traders anticipating two 25 basis point cuts, helping to lift the non‑yielding metal. Analysts and strategists have framed the move as part of a broader structural uptrend driven by record central bank purchases and reduced confidence in fiat currencies; Laodong noted that gold closed 2025 with its strongest annual gain since 1979.

The rally has spread across precious metals. ScanX reported silver at $95.01/oz (+0.4 percent), while Economic Times said spot silver was $94.68/oz after hitting a record $95.87/oz on Tuesday. Economic Times also cited spot platinum at $2,485.50/oz (after an intraday record $2,511.80/oz) and palladium at $1,873.18/oz.

Market commentators see room for further gains. Analyst Fawad Razaqzada of City Index and FOREX.com described the rally as “in uncharted territory” and flagged a near‑term target range of $4,800–$4,900/oz with $5,000/oz a longer‑term psychological level, as reported by IDN via Reuters. Ainvest referenced outside forecasts including a Goldman Sachs projection of $4,900/oz by late 2026 and AI model outputs that point to prices above $5,000/oz.

For investors and policymakers, the price move underscores how intensifying geopolitical friction can reprice risk quickly and influence monetary and currency dynamics. Central banks continuing to buy reserves will likely keep structural demand intact, while any prolonged dollar weakness and lower real yields would support further upside in bullion. Retail markets are already feeling the impact: ScanX quoted Indian domestic levels at roughly ₹153,000 per 10 grams for gold and ₹323,000 per kilogram for silver, illustrating how global moves transmit to local prices and consumption decisions.