Goldman Sachs lifts year-end 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 an ounce

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900, a roughly 10 percent upward revision driven by what the firm calls persistent structural demand and an expected shift in U.S. monetary policy. The bank said private-sector buyers and emerging-market central banks are now competing for limited bullion, a dynamic likely to sustain upward pressure on prices into 2026.

The research team, including analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas, highlighted three primary drivers. First, private investors have become a steady force: purchases through gold-backed ETFs, direct acquisitions of physical bars by wealthy families, and the use of call options as macro hedges have all made conviction buying more durable. Goldman warned that this private-sector conviction has repeatedly driven prices above earlier forecasts and is unlikely to unwind in 2026.

Second, central-bank buying has shifted from sporadic to systematic as emerging-market institutions diversify reserves away from dollar assets. Analysts cite an estimate that emerging-market central banks could buy on average about 60 metric tons per month in 2026, intensifying competition with private buyers for available bullion. "Central banks started competing for limited bullion with private sector investors," Struyven and Thomas wrote, underscoring the squeeze on physical supply.

Third, Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to begin easing policy in 2026, projecting roughly 50 basis points of cuts. The bank argues Fed easing would make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive and could reverse the ETF outflows that weighed on prices during periods of higher rates, triggering renewed inflows into gold-backed funds.

The revision builds on Goldman Sachs Research published on Sept. 30, 2025, which forecast a mid-2026 level of about $4,000 per ounce, up roughly 6 percent from a $3,772 price on Sept. 24, 2025. That research flagged the same structural forces now cited as reasons for the higher year-end target. Market performance has underlined those views: gold rose more than 40 percent in 2025, was on pace for a third straight year of double-digit gains, and has more than doubled since the start of 2023, when it traded near $1,865 per ounce.

Goldman stressed key risks that could trigger tactical pullbacks. The bank noted that if policy uncertainty recedes materially, profit-taking by conviction buyers could create near-term volatility. Analysts also warned that an increase in speculative long positions raises the risk of mean reversion from elevated positions. In that vein Goldman observed that in gold "the usual maxim that 'high prices cure high prices' does not apply" because mine supply is relatively inelastic and does not expand quickly as prices rise.

For markets, the forecast intensifies focus on ETF flow data, central-bank reserve reports and Fed communications. A sustained wave of central-bank and private buying against a backdrop of Fed easing would favor bullion and related assets, including miners and gold ETFs, while any unexpected hawkish surprise or speculative unwind could produce sharp corrections given the concentrated nature of physical supply.