Humboldt Hopes Rise as PFMC Forecasts Stronger Salmon Runs for 2026

The Pacific Fisheries Management Council is forecasting a current adult salmon ocean population of 392,349, a number California managers are using to plan the 2026 ocean salmon season, the Golden State Salmon Association wrote in a Feb. 25, 2026 press release. That uptick is linked directly to a surge in 2025 “jack” returns - the highest jack count since 2011 - and is already shaping expectations for sport and commercial fisheries that may open as early as May 16.

GSSA executive director Vance Staplin tied the forecast to Central Valley hydrology, saying the 2025 jack count “was the highest since 2011” and attributing improved juvenile survival to “very rainy, wet conditions in the Central Valley during 2024” that produced heavy runoff into valley rivers. Staplin added, “We’re cautiously optimistic about what this year’s improved salmon forecast means for a return to a more normal fishing season this year,” and stressed that experts tracking juvenile salmon link survival “primarily on flow conditions in the rivers.”

The Klamath Basin provided one of the clearest local signals of recovery for Humboldt-area interests: CDFW environmental scientist Dan Troxel reported adult Chinook returns in 2025 of roughly 51,400 fish compared with a preseason projection of about 28,600, or approximately 180% of forecast. Troxel credited habitat changes after dam removals on the lower Klamath River, saying, “For those of you who maybe just tangentially followed this dam removal thing … it is a completely different world [for these fish].” The rebound follows an “unprecedented three-year shutdown” of California’s commercial salmon season, highlighting the economic stakes for Humboldt County ports and shore-based businesses.

State management will move next through process: CDFW’s Annual Salmon Information Meeting opened a roughly two-month public process to develop management criteria for the 2026 sport and commercial ocean salmon seasons, and officials have the PFMC abundance figure available as they negotiate rules. The Golden State Salmon Association noted the “state to use quota-based management for 2026 season,” a procedural shift managers must reconcile with basin-level numbers such as the Klamath returns.

Restoration funding is accompanying the biological signals: CDFW’s Fisheries Restoration Grant Program received 53 proposals requesting more than $49 million for 2025, then awarded more than $10 million across 16 projects aimed at removing fish passage barriers, restoring thousands of acres of riparian habitat, improving migration pathways and advancing science-based flow management. CDFW Acting Director Valerie Termini said these grants put the Salmon Strategy into action, and Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot added the investments will “improve the health of creeks and rivers across the state, which will help salmon survive through climate change.” The state is accepting proposals for 2026 FRGP grants through March 2, 2026.

For Humboldt County anglers, processors and coastal communities, the next two months will determine how the PFMC’s 392,349 forecast, the Klamath Basin’s 51,400 returns and quota-based management translate into season dates, quota levels and local openings ahead of the tentative May 16 start. Officials and stakeholders will finalize management criteria during the public process that began after the CDFW meeting.