India and Brazil sign critical‑minerals pact as leaders push $20–$30 billion trade goal

India and Brazil formalized a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals and rare earths in New Delhi, a pact leaders presented as central to strengthening supply chains and boosting trade. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “We are committed to taking bilateral trade much beyond $20 billion in the next five years.” President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called the agreement “pioneering,” saying, “Increasing investments and cooperation in matters of renewable energies and critical minerals is at the core of the pioneering agreement that we have signed today.”

The document was signed on Feb. 21, 2026, during Lula’s three‑day state visit and was one of ten agreements concluded in delegation‑level discussions at Hyderabad House. Lula arrived with a large official and commercial delegation, including 11 ministers and about 300 businesspeople, underscoring Brazil’s emphasis on converting the memorandum into commercial projects. Current annual two‑way trade stands at roughly $15 billion; the leaders flagged targets that would push that baseline “much beyond” $20 billion in five years and, in Brazil’s framing, potentially toward $30 billion by 2030.

Officials described the pact as focused on exploration, mining, processing and steel sector infrastructure and as intended to attract investment that supports both countries’ industrial agendas. Modi framed the deal as a supply‑chain priority: “The agreement on critical minerals and rare earths is a major step towards building resilient supply chains.” He also said, “Our nations will also work closely in areas such as technology, innovation, digital public infrastructure, AI, semiconductors and more,” tying mineral access to broader ambitions in technology and manufacturing.

India’s industrial rationale is explicit. The government is seeking to secure raw materials to support rapid capacity growth in steel and related sectors; India’s steelmaking capacity is about 218 million metric tons. Officials say diversification of supply away from concentrated sources is urgent as global demand for rare earths and battery‑metal inputs rises and China retains dominant market positions in processing and refinement.

Brazil’s resource profile was highlighted repeatedly during the visit. Brazilian authorities and Indian officials described Brazil as a major iron ore producer with substantial critical mineral reserves and noted that much of that potential remains untapped. A senior Indian foreign ministry official, P. Kumaran, said, “President Lula gave a very detailed presentation on Brazil's substantial critical minerals and rare earth reserves. He said only 30 percent of their reserves have been explored and that there is substantial scope for exploration, processing minerals and also using them.”

Policy and practical gaps remain. Government spokespeople did not publish the full MOU text at the time of signing and said detailed provisions, timelines and financing arrangements were still being worked out. That absence leaves open critical questions about which specific minerals are covered, planned projects, investment commitments, processing capacity, local content conditions and environmental and community safeguards.

Analysts framed the pact as part of a larger Global South push to secure on‑ground resource access. Rishabh Jain of the Delhi‑based Council on Energy, Environment and Water observed, “Global South alliances are critical for securing diversified, on‑ground resource access and shaping emerging rules of global trade.” Leaders also signaled support for expanding the India‑MERCOSUR preferential trade agreement, while acknowledging sensitive negotiations remain on agricultural and certain industrial tariff lines.

The memorandum marks a strategic deepening of ties, but its tangible impact will depend on follow‑through: the release of the MOU text, investment announcements, project timelines and governance measures that reconcile industrial ambition with environmental and community accountability.