Investors pin hopes on Nvidia earnings to steady AI‑sensitive stocks

Investors are focused on Nvidia as a potential stabilizer for a U.S. market roiled by AI-driven sector swings, with markets zeroing in on the chipmaker’s coming quarterly report set for Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026. Analysts compiled by LSEG expect Nvidia to post a 71 percent rise in earnings per share and $65.9 billion in revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, numbers that would test market optimism about the AI infrastructure boom.

The attention is disproportionate: Nvidia holds a 7.8 percent weighting in the S&P 500 and has been a leading driver of index performance. The stock soared more than 1,500 percent from late 2022 through the end of last year, and was up roughly 0.8 percent in 2026 as of Thursday, underscoring how one company’s results can move broad benchmarks. Yet the S&P 500 itself was only up about 0.2 percent for the year, reflecting deep internal dispersion: the S&P 500 software and services index is down about 20 percent so far this year, and industries such as software, wealth management and real estate services have been sharply hit on concerns they are vulnerable to AI disruption.

Wall Street’s expectations are large but uneven. Analysts’ consensus for Nvidia’s coming fiscal year pegs EPS at $7.76, a projected jump of about 66 percent, while the range of estimates spans $6.28 to $9.68, a spread S&P Global Visible Alpha’s Melissa Otto called “significant.” Otto added: “If the bulls are right, then the stock is looking probably not too expensive. If the bears are right...it’s not that cheap.”

The company’s recent actuals complicate the picture. Forbes reported that Nvidia posted $57 billion in revenue for fiscal third quarter 2026, up 62 percent year over year, with datacenter revenue of $51.2 billion, up 55 percent, and Spectrum‑X networking gear sales up 162 percent. Those results reflect rapid growth already realized, but the market is placing equal emphasis on forward guidance and the tone of CEO Jensen Huang during the earnings call.

Market strategists say Huang’s comments could reverberate across hyperscalers and hardware suppliers. Nick Giorgi, chief equity strategist at Alpine Macro, said: “Jensen has to come out and show his confidence in his own customers. The fact that to this point, Nvidia has been a cheerleader for their biggest customers is actually what you should want as an investor in this whole ecosystem.” MarketMinute described Nvidia as having “transitioned from a mere hardware provider to the foundational architect of the global intelligence economy” and flagged server makers such as Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Dell Technologies (DELL) as highly sensitive to any shifts in Nvidia’s shipment timelines and guidance.

Not everyone is convinced a blowout quarter ends skepticism about the AI buildout. Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, noted that “the expectation for outsized results for Nvidia has been a persistent theme over the past few years. And so it’s hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise.” Michael Hutchens, founder of Modano, warned in a LinkedIn post quoted by Forbes that strong results do not negate wider market questions: “Anyone who thinks that NVIDIA’s extraordinary quarterly earnings release is proof that there is no AI bubble has no understanding of how AI works and the circular relationships between the key players.”

Beyond Nvidia, investors will watch software heavyweights such as Salesforce (CRM) and Intuit (INTU), whose reports have taken on extra significance amid AI disruption fears. Short‑term market tickers displayed in the Investing feed showed NVDA -0.04 percent, CRM -1.33 percent and SPNY 0.64 percent, highlighting the mixed and jittery nature of current trading.

The coming beats and management commentary will therefore matter as much for signaling the pace of hyperscaler capital spending and hardware demand as for Nvidia’s headline numbers. With analyst estimates wide and market positioning stretched, the company’s guidance and Huang’s tone may determine whether AI‑sensitive stocks regain momentum or the recent wobble persists.