Kentucky, Georgia primaries test costly House race and key statewide contests

Money and turnout took center stage in Tuesday’s primaries, with Kentucky’s most expensive House race in U.S. history and Georgia’s early vote surge offering the clearest read yet on how much donor spending and partisan intensity can move voters before November.

In Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, Rep. Thomas Massie faced Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in a Republican primary that turned into a referendum on the Republican Party’s direction. Massie has represented the district since 2012, and the winner of the GOP nomination is expected to be heavily favored in November in a seat Republicans are not likely to lose. Ad spending and reservations in the race topped $32.6 million, underscoring how aggressively outside money and aligned allies poured into a contest meant to test whether a national endorsement can overcome an entrenched incumbent.

Kentucky also held an open U.S. Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, adding another test of party influence in a state where the general-election map remains sharply tilted toward Republicans. On the GOP side, voters chose between U.S. Rep. Andy Barr and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Democrats voted between Joshua Blanton Sr. and Charles Booker. The twin Senate contests gave Kentucky Republicans and Democrats a chance to show which messages and candidates can still consolidate their bases in a post-McConnell race.

Georgia carried a different kind of signal. Voters there decided nominations for U.S. Senate and governor, with Republicans picking a challenger to Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and both parties selecting nominees in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp. The ballot also included contests for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state, making Georgia a full statewide stress test for both parties’ organizations and messages.

What stood out most was the pace of early voting. More than 1 million Georgians voted early, breaking the previous primary early-voting record of about 857,000 in 2022. One report said Democrats held roughly a 15-point turnout advantage, a margin that Kemp publicly said he was concerned about. That advantage became the most important signal out of Georgia: not just that turnout was high, but that the partisan composition of that turnout could shape runoff dynamics and reveal whether Democrats were outpacing Republicans in a state that remains central to the national map.

The May 19 slate also included primaries in Alabama, Idaho, Oregon and Pennsylvania, but the Kentucky and Georgia races offered the sharpest early read on whether expensive primaries, strong early voting and high-profile endorsements are actually changing the electorate.