Litmus Test Third in Rebel, Will Remain at Oaklawn for Arkansas Derby

Bob Baffert said he will leave Litmus Test at Oaklawn and give the Nyquist colt another chance at the GI Arkansas Derby on March 28 after the horse ran a hard early race and finished third in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. “I didn't want to bring him all the way back here and ship him back. He's there. I want to give him another chance. I didn't want to run here (Santa Anita). I've got other horses for here. Just splitting them up,” Baffert said.

The Rebel at Oaklawn Park, a 1 1/16-mile, $1,000,000 G2 on March 1, produced a 10-horse field in which Litmus Test broke from post 1 after Bravaro was expected to be scratched. Flavien Prat rode Litmus Test, who showed early speed, set the pace and then “weakened from the lead to finish third 5 1/4 lengths behind Class President,” with Silent Tactic finishing second. The Rebel carried Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale and had a probable post time of 5:23 p.m. CST.

Connections framed the run as a strong educational start toward the Derby trail rather than a setback. Tom Ryan of SF Racing said, “I thought Litmus Test’s performance [third in the Rebel Stales] was pretty solid. I think he’ll progress along. He came out of his race in good shape. Oaklawn’s [surface] may have been a little more demanding than we initially felt. He’s definitely a good horse and we know he’s a cut above his performance in the Rebel.” Ryan added, “I think he is entitled to run back in the [Mar. 28 GI] Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. I think he will have benefitted from his run in the Rebel and hopefully, he can move forward off of that.”

Litmus Test enters the Arkansas Derby with 34 Kentucky Derby points and sits eighth on the leaderboard after the Rebel; a high placing at Oaklawn on March 28 would be pivotal for his Derby qualification. The colt was purchased for $875,000 as a Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling and is owned by a partnership that includes SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan. As a juvenile he finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and won the GII Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 13, 2025. He had seven published workouts at Santa Anita prior to shipping to Oaklawn, his final breeze there a half-mile in :47.80 on Feb. 21.

The Rebel’s result reinforced Oaklawn’s role as a major Derby prep venue this spring. Silent Tactic, trained by Mark Casse and runner-up in the Rebel, earlier won the G3 Southwest Stakes; Casse had already won Oaklawn points races this meeting with Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones and sought more success on the card. Rival Blackout Time, trained by Kenny McPeek, returned to Oaklawn off a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity and a scratch from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; McPeek said of that colt, “He’s a talented horse.” Blackout Time had five published works since Jan. 23, including a five-furlong bullet in 1:00 on Feb. 11 at Oaklawn.

Beyond Litmus Test’s immediate path, Tom Ryan also highlighted a stable longshot of its own, saying of yearling purchase Cherokee Nation, “[Cherokee Nation] was the most expensive yearling we purchased that year. He doesn’t just catch your eye but he stops you in your tracks. He’s everybody’s type of sexy. He’s just a big, beautiful, two-turn horse that is exciting to have in the barn. The fact that he is out of an Indian Charlie mare is full circle with Bob because he trained Indian Charlie and he’s such a good broodmare sire. We are truly excited about the horse and about Not This Time. It feels like sky is the limit with that stallion.”

With Baffert’s record of eight Rebel victories since 2010 and Litmus Test’s ownership and juvenile form, staying at Oaklawn for the March 28 GI Arkansas Derby gives the colt a clear route to add crucial Derby points and resume a campaign that owners and trainer believe can progress after the Rebel outing.