London black cabs face robotaxi competition as licences fall
London’s black-cab fleet is shrinking as robotaxis move closer to the road, raising a test for regulators over safety, access and The Knowledge.
London’s black cabs are shrinking just as robotaxis edge closer to British streets, setting up a collision between a licence built on human memory and a ride-hailing model built on software. TfL’s latest figures showed 15,933 licensed taxi drivers in London for the week ending 10 May 2026, with 13,657 licensed taxi vehicles, of which 9,507 were zero-emission capable.
For generations, London’s cabbies have had to master The Knowledge, memorising about 25,000 streets to qualify for a licence. That standard has long been tied to the black cab’s selling point: a driver who can navigate the city’s lanes, detours and landmarks without a map, while offering a universally wheelchair-accessible vehicle. TfL says black taxis remain one of the most accessible ways to travel in the capital and still play a vital role in keeping London moving.
The trade, however, is already under strain. TfL’s March 27, 2025 action plan for taxis and private hire services laid out 14 actions over five years to support the sector through a difficult period. A separate briefing from Centre for London in March 2025 warned that black cab numbers had fallen by 34.5% over the 10 years to 2023-24, and said the decline could leave no black cabs on London roads by 2045 if it continues.
That pressure is sharpening as the legal framework for automated driving falls into place. The UK’s Automated Vehicles Act 2024 received Royal Assent on 20 May 2024, and the government said self-driving vehicles could be on British roads by 2026. TfL’s January 2025 guidance for London trials says operators must work with the authority from the start, use a safety-first approach and provide regular reporting, underscoring how closely the capital intends to police early deployments.
Waymo has already signalled its intent to join that market. In 2025, the company said it planned to launch fully autonomous ride-hailing in London, pointing to more than 200 million miles driven on public roads and more than 10 million paid rides in the United States. It said testing in London would begin with trained specialists behind the wheel before a full driverless service.
That is where the policy challenge now lands: not whether automation will arrive, but what standards must come before it scales. London regulators are being asked to preserve an accessible, tightly regulated transport network while deciding how much room to give a new entrant promising lower costs, convenience and safety. For black cab drivers, the threat is existential. For TfL, the task is to make sure the next phase of mobility does not erase the service the city still depends on.
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