Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in Brazil runoff poll, Reuters says
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro were tied at 45 percent in a runoff poll, with Lula’s lead in the first round narrowing to 38 percent to 35 percent.
A new Datafolha survey put Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro in a dead heat at 45 percent each in a hypothetical runoff, a sign that Brazil’s next presidential race could turn on the margins in a country where two-round elections reward coalition building as much as raw name recognition. The poll interviewed 2,004 voters between May 12 and May 13 in 137 municipalities, carried a two-point margin of error and was registered with Brazil’s electoral court under BR-00290/2026.
The first-round numbers were only slightly better for Lula. He led with 38 percent, while Flavio Bolsonaro followed at 35 percent, a tighter gap than April, when Lula held 39 percent to Flavio’s 35 percent in the same pollster’s first-round test. In the April runoff scenario, Flavio had edged Lula 46 percent to 45 percent. A separate Genial/Quaest survey released on May 13 showed Lula at 39 percent and Flavio at 33 percent in the opening round, underscoring that different pollsters still see a highly competitive contest, even if they differ on the size of Lula’s advantage.
The numbers also show how heavily the race is shaped by political brands rather than policy details. Datafolha found that Lula was known by 99 percent of respondents, while Flavio Bolsonaro was known by 93 percent. That gap is small for two nationally recognized figures, especially in a country where presidential politics is often built around identity, loyalty and the ability to hold together fragmented blocs in a runoff. Lula has said he will seek a fourth non-consecutive term in 2026, while Jair Bolsonaro endorsed Flavio’s presidential bid in December 2025, turning the race into a test of whether the Bolsonaro family name still carries enough force to compete with one of Brazil’s most durable political figures.
The poll landed as fresh allegations around Flavio Bolsonaro added another layer of volatility. Intercept Brasil said Flavio negotiated an arrangement with banker Daniel Vorcaro worth 134 million reais, or about $26.5 million, to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro’s life, and said at least 61 million reais, or about $10.6 million, had already been paid in six transfers between February and May 2025. Vorcaro is now imprisoned amid the collapse of Banco Master, and Flavio has denied wrongdoing. With the poll mostly completed before those revelations became public, the survey still captured a race already close enough to be decided by scandal, turnout and late movement, the forces that have repeatedly reshaped Brazil’s polarized politics.
Know something we missed? Have a correction or additional information?
Submit a Tip
