Majority of chief economists foresee global slowdown in 2026, WEF survey finds

A majority of the world’s leading economic forecasters now expect a slowdown in global activity in 2026, according to the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists’ Outlook published Jan. 24–25, 2026. The WEF survey found that roughly 53 percent of respondents anticipate weaker global economic conditions over the next 12 months, while just 19 percent expect stronger growth; the remaining roughly 28 percent were neutral or saw little change.

The shift in sentiment marks a clear tilt toward downside risk among senior economists who advise governments and large corporations. While the WEF summary focuses on the distribution of views, the balance of opinion matters for markets and policy. A broad expectation of weaker growth tends to lower risk appetites, compress corporate earnings forecasts and increase the probability that central banks will consider easing sooner than previously signaled if inflation continues to cool.

Financial markets have already begun to price in greater policy uncertainty for 2026. Equity indices are sensitive to revisions in growth expectations because lower demand would weigh on revenue and profit margins, particularly in cyclically exposed sectors such as industrials and consumer discretionary. At the same time, fixed-income markets could see two countervailing moves: appetite for safe assets may push down nominal yields, while stubborn inflation would keep real borrowing costs elevated and complicate the policy response.

From a policy perspective, the WEF finding highlights a narrowing toolkit for governments. Many advanced economies entered the current cycle with high public debt and limited fiscal headroom after pandemic-era spending and subsequent support measures. If growth weakens as a majority of chief economists expect, fiscal authorities will face pressure to support activity while managing long-term debt sustainability. Central banks will be assessing whether inflation is sufficiently subdued to allow rate cuts without risking renewed price pressures.

Longer-term structural trends underscore why a slowdown would carry outsized consequences. Productivity growth has remained tepid in many advanced economies, demographics are shifting toward older workforces in several major markets, and global trade patterns have become less synchronized amid persistent geopolitical tensions. Those forces reduce the elasticity of growth to policy stimulus and raise the premium on reforms that boost productivity and labor-force participation.

Emerging markets will feel the ripple effects unevenly. Countries with large external financing needs or elevated debt burdens are more vulnerable to a deterioration in global growth or a sudden tightening in financial conditions. Conversely, economies with stronger fiscal positions or commodities exposure could fare better if demand remains resilient in specific regions.

The WEF survey does not pin a precise probability on recession, but the majority view of weakening conditions raises the bar for policymakers and investors to manage downside risks. In the near term, markets will watch incoming data on manufacturing, services activity and inflation readings, plus guidance from central bank meetings, for clues about whether the pessimistic tilt among chief economists will become reality.