Majority of Harris County Primary Voters Say County Is On Wrong Track

A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey, fielded Feb. 3-10 with two samples of 2,000 likely primary voters each and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percentage points, shows a majority of likely primary voters in Harris County believe the county has “gotten off on the wrong track.” The split is stark by party: 50% of likely Democratic primary voters and 62% of likely Republican primary voters said the county is on the wrong track, while 32% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans said it is going in the right direction and 18% and 13% respectively said they did not know.

The survey also found sharp partisan divergence on Texas. Among likely Republican primary voters in Harris County, 63% said Texas is moving in the right direction; among likely Democratic primary voters, just 2% said the state is on the right track and 96% said it is on the wrong track. The survey suggests a similar partisan split in views of the United States’ direction, though numeric breakdowns for the national question were not provided in the survey summary.

Crime and property taxes rank highest for Republican primary voters as governing concerns: 32% named crime as the top county issue and 25% named rising property taxes, followed by roads and streets at 12%, traffic congestion 10%, housing costs 8%, flooding 7%, economic inequality 5% and ethnic or racial inequality 1%.

The county judge primaries show wide name recognition gaps and large blocks of undecided voters. In the Democratic contest, Annise Parker led with 46% support to Letitia Plummer’s 25% and Matt Salazar’s 5%, with 24% undecided. Parker’s favorability stood at 61% versus Plummer at 42%, and the survey showed Parker leading among White and Latino likely voters while Plummer led among Black likely voters. In the Republican judge field, Orlando Sanchez led with 21% support, Marty Lancton had 10% and Aliza Dutt 7%, while more than half of likely Republican primary voters — reported at 54% in one summary — said they were unsure who they would back. Gov. Greg Abbott has publicly endorsed Marty Lancton and during a campaign stop in Cypress signaled a plan to devote resources to make Harris County more favorable to Republicans.

Other contests also show large undecided shares. In the Democratic primary for Harris County attorney, Abbie Kamin had 26%, Audrie Lawton Evans 13% and roughly 60% of likely voters said they were unsure or did not know enough to choose. In U.S. House District 29, Rep. Sylvia Garcia registered 46% support to Jarvis Johnson’s 27% with 25% undecided; Garcia’s favorability was 70% compared with Johnson’s 45%, and roughly 40% of likely voters said they did not know enough about Johnson to form an opinion.

Brandon Rottinghaus, associate professor of political science at UH, cautioned that primaries “tend to bring out the most committed voters” rather than a broad cross-section of the electorate, a reminder that these findings reflect the views of likely primary voters who shaped the survey’s targets based in part on turnout in 2022 and 2024. With early voting underway ahead of the March 3 primary - the Hobby School summary noted early voting begins Feb. 17 while another account said early voting runs through Feb. 27 - the survey’s high undecided totals raise the prospect of multiple May runoffs; the Hobby School lists May 26 as the runoff date. The survey’s mix of negative county sentiment and large undecided pools sets the stakes for March 3 and could push several contests into the May 26 runoff calendar.